AUD/USD rises past 0.6450 amid USD weakness

AUD/USD sets a third consecutive day of gains, rising more than 0.60% towards 0.6470.
PMIs from August from the US and Australia came in lower than expected.
Dovish bets on the Fed are applying pressure on the USD.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

The AUD/USD gained traction in Wednesday's session, driven by a weaker USD. The US reported lower-than-expected PMIs, but its Services sector remained resilient. At the same time, the Australian figures also failed to live up to expectations—eyes on Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday.

Weak US PMIs fueled a decline in US yields, which weakened the USD

The US S&P Global PMIs arrived weaker than anticipated. The Manufacturing PMI fell to 47, contrasting with the projected 49.3, whereas the Services index, though below expectations, stayed within the expansion range at 51. Despite reporting soft data, the US Service sector remains resilient. At the same time, the British, German, and Australian Services index dropped below 50, and the USD may gain further traction as the US economy seems to be the last man standing.

Reacting to the weak economic activity data, the 2, 5, and 10-year US Treasury yields show sharp declines of more than 1.50%, suggesting that the markets are betting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) won’t be as aggressive as expected for the rest of the year. That being said, Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium will be key for investors to continue modelling their expectations for the upcoming Fed meetings.

On the AUD’s side, the Manufacturing and Services PMIs from Australia from August were lower than expected at 49.4 and 46.7, respectively. China’s weakening and the contractive monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are the main reasons for the softening of the Australian economy.

AUD/USD Levels to watch

Analysing the daily chart, the technical outlook for the AUD/USD remains neutral to bullish as the bulls continue to regain their momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a decrease in downward momentum with a positive slope below its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) presents lower red bars. Additionally, the pair is below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), implying that the bears retain control on a broader scale while the buyers still have some work to do.

Support levels: 0.6440, 0.6415, 0.6400.

Resistance levels: 0.6470, 0.6490, 0.6500.

AUD/USD Daily chart

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6468
Today Daily Change	0.0045
Today Daily Change %	0.70
Today daily open	0.6423

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6539
Daily SMA50	0.6662
Daily SMA100	0.6662
Daily SMA200	0.6731

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6458
Previous Daily Low	0.6404
Previous Weekly High	0.6522
Previous Weekly Low	0.6364
Previous Monthly High	0.6895
Previous Monthly Low	0.6599
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6437
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6424
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6398
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6374
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6344
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6453
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6482
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6507

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

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