Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7864, down -0.14% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7877 and low at 0.7860.
AUD/USD is stabilising in the high 0.78s after the extension from the 26th July 0.8008 highs met demand down at 0.7855 at the start of this week. The minor correction has made a high of 0.7910 so far, but risk off pressures that do not benefit the carry and higher beta currencies capped the bulls there for the time being.
AUD/USD 1-3 month:
Analysts at Westpac explained that if the RBA remains firmly on hold, as we expect, and the US dollar rises on tighter Fed policy, then AUD/USD could fall to 0.76 by year end.
For the events ahead for the rest of the week, we have RBA Governor Phillip Lowe speaking currently and US CPI. RBA's Lowe is testifying before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics in Melbourne. Markets are waiting to hear if he jawbones AUD and shows concerns about the strength of the Aussie.
Comments so far:
- Global economy has strengthened since last meeting
- China growth has surprised on upside of late
- Global economy has strengthened since Feb.
- RBA working closely with APRA on financial risks
- Measures will work to strengthen household b/s
- Investment ex-resources pickup taking longer than expect.
- More AUD gains would slow inflation pickup
- Likely to be some time before reach full employment
- Says cash rate at 1.5% supporting jobs growth
- Further AUD gains would slow inflation pickup, employment
- Says board prepared to be patient
AUD/USD levels
AUDUSD: The dailies are looking increasingly negative
Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that, technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the price remained contained by a bearish 20 SMA, still retreating on spikes towards the dynamic resistance, now at 0.7900, while technical indicators are neutral-to-bearish within negative territory, maintaining the risk towards the downside. "The weekly low stands at 0.7855, the level to break to confirm further declines towards 0.7785, July 18th daily low," she added.
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