|

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls firming to test critical 0.71 the figure that guards a much stronger correction

  • Bulls are testing the neckline near the current levels at 0.71 the figure. A break here will leave the bulls in good stead for a break of resistance around 0.7135.
  • A break of 0.7150 could open the way towards 0.7200 and then the 0.7260s and prior highs.   

There is a battle going on between the bulls and bears surrounding the Aussie and the US dollar. As per the prior analysis, AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls take the high road but bears emerge from critical H4 resistance, ''the Aussie has a habit of defying gravity.''

The US dollar rose on Wednesday, holding most of its earlier gains after minutes from the Federal Reserve's May meeting showed that most participants believed a half-percentage-point rate increase would likely be appropriate in June and July.

However, the Aussie bulls have stayed the course and the price continues to stick within the vicinity of the rising wedge formation. 

AUD/USD H4 charts, prior analysis

It was stated that ''a break of the current resistance would be a significant development. There is a void between there and the 0.73 figure and the price imbalance could well be mitigated.''

On the flip side, it was explained that the bears were ''moving in and repeated failures at this resistance level would be expected to leave the ball in their court. A subsequent break of the next term support would be expected to encourage the bears back to the table and a snowball effect gathering momentum could result in a downside continuation and restest of the counter trendline.''

It was then stated that ''a break of the trendline and a run on sell stops would be expected to result in supply that could push the bulls back to the edge of an abyss at 0.6950,'' as per the following daily chart's analysis:

AUD/USD live market

As illustrated, the bears tried to take control below the rising wedge, but the bulls firmed at horizontal support and have taken the bears back into the channel. The pull of the M-formation was too much for the bears and the bulls are testing the neckline near the current levels at 0.71 the figure. A break here will leave the bulls in good stead for a break of resistance around 0.7135 and a run of 0.7150 could open the way towards 0.7200 and then the 0.7260s and prior highs.   

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD bounces off nearly two-month low; upside seems limited

AUD/USD rebounds from its lowest level since April 13, touched during the Asian session on Monday, as the US Dollar pauses following Friday's upbeat US NFP-led blowout rally to a two-month high. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainties, along with surging bets on Fed rate hikes, might continue to act as a tailwind for the USD. Furthermore, diminishing odds of a near-term RBA rate hike should cap gains for the Aussie.

USD/JPY bulls seem hesitant amid intervention fears

USD/JPY touches a fresh high since late April following an Asian session dip, though intervention fears limit losses for the Japanese Yen (JPY) and cap the upside. This counters Japan’s revised GDP print, which confirmed that the economy lost momentum in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Friday's upbeat US NFP report lifted bets of a Fed rate hike and favors the US Dollar bulls, backing the case for a further move higher for the currency pair.

Gold recovers slightly from the $4,300 neighborhood; not out of the woods yet

Gold attracts some buyers at the start of a new week and reverses part of Friday's decline to its lowest since March 24, around the $4,300 mark. The US Dollar pauses after Friday’s upbeat US NFP-led blowout rally to a two-month high and supports the bullion. However, a surge in bets on a Fed rate hike, along with geopolitical uncertainties, favors USD bulls. The backs the case for the emergence of fresh sellers around the precious metal at higher levels.

Week ahead: Fed countdown begins amid US inflation data and geopolitical risks
The countdown to the biggest event of the year so far, the first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh on June 17, has officially commenced. Next week’s key events could serve as the best appetizer for Warsh’s first press conference, although market participants will probably be distracted by developments elsewhere.
Week ahead – Fed countdown begins amid US inflation data and geopolitical risks

Fed Chair Warsh’s first meeting approaches as key US inflation data could reshape expectations. Oil prices remain elevated as US-Iran talks continue; tariffs also return to the spotlight. ECB is expected to hike; will it be a one-off move or is July live?

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.