AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears await sustained break and acceptance below 0.6500 mark

AUD/USD meets with a fresh supply on Friday and drops back closer to the weekly low.
Weaker Chinese trade data undermine the Aussie amid strong follow-through USD buying.
The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for additional losses.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair comes under some renewed selling pressure on Friday and extends its steady intraday descent through the early part of the European session. Spot prices touch a fresh daily low following the release of weaker Chinese trade data, albeit manage to hold above the 0.6500 psychological mark and rebound a few pips in the last hour.

Any meaningful recovery, however, still seems elusive in the wake of strong follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying, bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer amid sticky US inflation. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from conflicts in the Middle East benefit the safe-haven Greenback and might further contribute to capping the risk-sensitive Aussie.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair, so far, has managed to defend the 0.6500 mark, which should now act as a key pivotal point. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction, a convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for an extension of the recent sharp pullback from the 0.6645 area, or a one-month high touched earlier this week.

Some follow-through selling below the 0.6480 area, or the monthly low, will reaffirm the negative bias and allow the AUD/USD pair to aim back to challenge the YTD trough, around the 0.6445-0.6440 region touched in February. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 0.6400 mark en route to the next relevant support near the 0.6355-0.6350 zone.

On the flip side, any attempted recovery is likely to confront stiff resistance near the 0.6545-0.6555 region, which coincides with the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This is followed by the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the 0.6600 mark, above which a bout of a short-covering move has the potential to lift the AUD/USD pair back towards the 0.6640-0.6645 area, or the monthly swing high.

AUD/USD daily chart

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6515
Today Daily Change	-0.0023
Today Daily Change %	-0.35
Today daily open	0.6538

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6549
Daily SMA50	0.6544
Daily SMA100	0.6603
Daily SMA200	0.6544

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6553
Previous Daily Low	0.6502
Previous Weekly High	0.6619
Previous Weekly Low	0.6481
Previous Monthly High	0.6667
Previous Monthly Low	0.6478
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6534
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6521
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6509
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.648
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6458
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.656
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6582
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6611

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD sits at three-week highs above 0.7000 on hawkish RBA-speak

AUD/USD holds a positive bias for the fourth straight day, trading above 0.7000 in the Asian session on Wednesday and at three-week highs. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's hawkish remarks and inflation concerns underpin the pair. However, the upside appears capped as the US Dollar attracts some buyers amid looming US-Iran uncertainty.

USD/JPY remains confined in a familiar range below 158.50

USD/JPY sees some dip-buying in the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined within a multi-week range near 158.50 as the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike keeps Japanese Yen bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, bolstered by inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, underpin the US Dollar. However, looming intervention fears could limit JPY losses and cap the currency pair.

Gold advances modestly; targets $4,150

Gold prices manage to reverse three consecutive daily declines, trading just below the $4,150 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. The precious metal’s recovery comes amid a slight drop in the US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields across the board and a widespread cautious tone from the US-Iran front.

Bitcoin eyes a break above $85,000 as institutional demand returns

Bitcoin edges higher above $83,000, extending its rebound from the 50-day EMA near $80,786. US-listed BTC spot ETFs recorded over $23 million in net inflows on Tuesday, following Monday's $526 million, signaling a return of institutional demand.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.