AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears are dominating the bias with eyes on break of 0.6900

AUD/USD bears are gathering with volume up high within the recent range.
A breakout could be imminent and 0.6950/00 is the key.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

In the opening article for the week on AUD/USD, AUD/USD Price Analysis: Key support in play with eyes on 0.6900/50 for the opening range, it was stated that on the hourly chart, ''we have 0.6950 to clear before a bullish thesis can be solidified, so it is a case of seeing how the opening range on Monday develops.''

However, while holding above the trendline and said support, there were prospects of a short squeeze to test 0.6950 for Monday and p[prospects of a move into low-hanging fruit below 0.6900 and into the 0.6880s beforehand:

AUD/USD updates

The target areas were done as illustrated above ahead of US CPI volatility on Tuesday:

The market was essentially stuck in a range into the data so picking which side to bias one way or the other was a task of improbable outcomes unless hedging your bets. However, with the dust settling, the price is up high in the consolidative range and there could be a bearish thesis drawn as follows:

We have a possible bearish head and shoulders up high within the range:

A break below 0.6950 opens risk of a test of 0.6900 again and from a daily perspective, this could be the most probable outcome for the days ahead:

There has already been a move to test the neckline of the M-formation neckline and a test of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. We also have a W-formation which is also a bearish feature as follows:

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD declines to near 1.3500 as US-Iran tensions rise

The GBP/USD pair declines to near 1.3500 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East provide some support to a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar against the British Pound. All eyes will be on the US August jobs report later on Friday.

EUR/USD falls to two-week low below 1.1600 on broad USD strength

EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure after closing in negative territory on Tuesday and trades at its lowest level in two weeks below 1.1600 on Wednesday. As tensions in the Middle East escalate further, the US Dollar gathers strength on risk-aversion and hawkish Fed repricing, forcing the pair to stay on the back foot. Later in the day, private sector employment data from the US will be watched closely by market participants.

Gold recovers above $4,300; upside seems capped as Fed bets support USD

Gold recovers early lost ground to a four-week low, and trades above $4,320 heading into the European session. A modest US Dollar pullback is seen as a key factor supporting the commodity, though any meaningful upside seems elusive amid hawkish US Federal Reserve expectations. The escalating Middle East conflict lifted crude oil prices to a fresh high since July 24, stoking inflation fears and reaffirming bets for a Fed rate hike in September.

WTI advances to mid-$90.00s, fresh high since July 24 amid escalating US-Iran tensions

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – scales higher for the third straight day – also marking the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six – and climbs to a fresh high since July 24 during the Asian session on Wednesday.

ADP Employment Report is expected to show a moderate increase in private payrolls in August

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute will release its monthly report on private-sector job creation for August next Wednesday. The ADP Employment Change report is expected to show that the United States private sector added 47K new positions this month, little changed from the 44K new jobs reported in July.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.