- AUD/USD remains depressed near two-month low post Fed, Jerome Powell.
- Fed keeps policy intact, revises up economic forecasts, dot-plot.
- Powell sounds most optimistic since pandemic, accepts a more consistent inflation run-up than earlier expected.
- Equity, gold downside add to the bearish moves ahead of RBA’s Lowe and Australia employment for May.
AUD/USD bears keep controls near mid-April lows, stretching the previous day’s south-run, amid the early hours of Thursday’s Asian session. The Aussie pair dropped the most in two weeks while teasing the 0.7600, currently around 0.7610, after US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcements. The volatility span isn’t over as RBA Governor Philip Lowe and Australia’s jobs report for May decorate today’s economic calendar.
Upset victory?
Australia is an export-oriented country and a weaker Aussie helps the economy that recently witnessed strained relations with its largest customer China. Hence, Wednesday’s post-Fed slump could be considered as a victory for the policymakers at the cost of short-term pair for bulls.
Fed kept monetary policy intact, as expected, but revised up the GDP and inflation forecasts. More importantly, the Fed policymakers’ interest rate projections, mostly known as dot-plot, mentions seven officials expect hikes in 2022 and 13 in 2023.
Additionally, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also played his role to propel the US dollar and drag down the AUD/USD prices by accepting that the inflation run-up could be more consistent than earlier expected. Even so, the Fed Boss highlights vaccine-led economic recovery to push back the rate-hike and tapering concerns, but the markets didn’t believe in them.
Following the much-awaited event, equities witnessed the sea of red and commodities also traded south, exerting downside pressure on the AUD/USD prices. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yields jumped the most since early March, up 8.2 basis points (bps) to 1.58%, by the end of Wednesday’s North American session.
Given the fundamental blow to the markets, coupled with the pre-Lowe and jobs report mood, AUD/USD may remain pressured. However, traders will be keenly observing RBA Governor Lowe’s reaction to the latest Fed moves to determine near-term RBA stand for July. Any optimism for tapering or a hint of it could help the Aussie pair to consolidate the latest losses.
Further, Australia’s Unemployment Rate is likely to remain unchanged at 5.5% in May and the Participation Rate may also inch a bit up to 66.1% from 66.0% prior but the expected jump in Employment Change to +30K from -30.6K will be the key to follow.
Read: Australian Employment Preview: Long way to recovery
Technical analysis
Having breached the ascending trend line connecting lows marked in mid-April and early June, around 0.7655, AUD/USD becomes vulnerable to test 0.7560-50 area comprising lows marked in February and March.
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