- AUD/USD struggled to preserve/capitalize on its early move to a one-week high.
- Rising geopolitical tensions acted as a headwind for the perceived riskier aussie.
- Retreating US bond yields undermined the USD and could help limit the downside.
The AUD/USD pair surrendered its intraday gains to a one-week high and was last seen hovering near the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 0.7120-15 region.
The pair built on this week's strong recovery from the lowest level since November 2020 and gained some follow-through traction during the early part of the trading action on Wednesday. The uptick was supported by a modest US dollar weakness, though lacked follow-through buying and ran out of steam ahead of mid-0.7100s.
Relations between the US and Russia took a turn for the worse after US President Joe Biden threatened to impose economic and other measures on Russia if it invades Ukraine. This, in turn, kept a lid on the recent optimistic move in the financial markets and acted as a headwind for the perceived riskier Australian dollar.
Meanwhile, reviving safe-haven demand led to a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields, which undermined the US dollar and helped limit the downside for the AUD/USD pair. That said, the prospects for a faster policy tightening by the Fed support prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying and warrant caution for bulls.
The markets have been pricing in the possibility for an eventual Fed liftoff in May 2022 amid worries about the persistent rise in inflationary pressures. Hence, the focus shifts to the release of the US CPI report on Friday, which will influence the Fed's policy outlook and provide a fresh directional impetus to the AUD/USD pair.
In the meantime, the US bond yields will drive the USD demand and produce some short-term trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair. Apart from this, traders will further take cues from geopolitical developments and the broader market risk sentiment amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US.
Technical levels to watch
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