AUD/USD clings to gains near 0.7035-40 area, focus shifts to RBA decision on Tuesday

The risk-on impulse prompted some short-covering around the perceived riskier aussie.
Hawkish Fed expectations underpinned the USD and might cap the upside for AUD/USD.
Investors now look forward to the RBA decision on Tuesday for some meaningful impetus.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair maintained its bid tone through the mid-European session and was last seen hovering near the top end of its daily trading range, around the 0.7035-40 region.

Having shown some resilience below the key 0.7000 psychological mark, the AUD/USD pair witnessed some short-covering on Monday and recovered a part of the previous day's losses to a fresh YTD low. The global risk sentiment stabilized a bit in reaction to reports from South Africa, suggesting that Omicron patients only had relatively mild symptoms. This, in turn, led to a strong recovery in the equity markets and benefitted the perceived riskier aussie.

The upbeat market mood got an additional boost after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) slashed the bank's Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 50bps, releasing 1.2 trillion-yuan long-term liquidity. Despite the supporting factors, the uptick lacked bullish conviction amid the prevalent bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar. The prospects for a faster policy tightening by the Fed acted as a tailwind for the greenback and might cap gains for the AUD/USD pair.

Investors seem convinced that the Fed would be forced to adopt a more aggressive policy response to contain stubbornly high inflation and have been pricing in the possibility of liftoff by May 2022. Apart from this, rebounding US Treasury bond yields favours the USD bulls. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/USD pair has formed a near-term base and positioning for any further appreciating move.

There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US, leaving the USD at the mercy of the US bond yields. Apart from this, developments surrounding the coronavirus saga and the broader market risk sentiment will influence the USD price dynamics. This should provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair ahead of the RBA policy decision on Tuesday.

Technical levels to watch

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.7037
Today Daily Change	0.0033
Today Daily Change %	0.47
Today daily open	0.7004

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.723
Daily SMA50	0.7325
Daily SMA100	0.7326
Daily SMA200	0.75

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.7102
Previous Daily Low	0.6993
Previous Weekly High	0.7174
Previous Weekly Low	0.6993
Previous Monthly High	0.7537
Previous Monthly Low	0.7063
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.7035
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.706
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6964
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6924
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6855
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.7073
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.7142
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.7182

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Week ahead: US CPI, France’s budget crisis and Q3 earnings to set the market tone

The US dollar held relatively strong this week, despite the disappointing US jobs report on October 2, which further decreased the probability of a back-to-back rate hike by the Fed at the upcoming gathering on October 28.

CFTC Report: Euro and Aussie shorts expand amid diverging signals

The week in one sentence: Euro and Australian Dollar shorts deepened in the week to October 6, while Yen longs rebuilt. In addition, Coffee buying continued, and Gold exposure remained elevated despite another price decline. Speculators turned more negative on the Euro, increasing the net exposure to around 99.3K contracts.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?