|

AUD/USD buyers stepped around weekly lows, dragging the pair towards 0.6970s on weak USD

  • The Australian Dollar got bolstered by China’s upbeat GDP and improvement in Australia’s consumer sentiment.
  • New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged as business conditions deteriorated, augmenting speculations for a Fed pivot.
  • AUD/USD traders are eyeing Fed speaking, US PPI, Retail Sales, and Australia’s employment data.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trimming some of its Monday’s losses and rising due to an offered US Dollar (USD) across the board, despite a dampened market mood surrounding Wall Street. US corporate earnings would likely continue to drive the market sentiment amidst the lack of tier 1 data. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.6974.

AUD/USD climbs but fails to crack 0.7000

Wall Street continues to lose traction as sentiment turns sour. US data released ahead of the US cash market equities open showed that Manufacturing activity in New York plunged to its lowest in January, as reported by the New York Federal Reserve (Fed). Delving into the report, business activity contracted sharply, with the index falling 22 points to -32.9. The report showed that new orders and shipments declined substantially, while delivery times were unchanged and inventories aimed higher.

The softer-than-expected data spurred a jump in the AUD/USD pair, reaching a new daily high of 0.6993, before retracing some of its gains. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, retraces 0.11%, down at 102.448, undermined by falling US Treasury bond yields.

On the Australian side, upbeat data from China, mainly the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) beating expectations of 1.6%, at 2.9% for Q4, bolstered the Aussie Dollar (AUD). Regarding the annual based data, China’s GDP came at 3%, well below the Communist Party’s 5% projection, and trailed 2021 by 8.1%.

Even though China’s data for the entire year disappointed, its reopening is being cheered by market investors, as the Hang Seng has risen almost 14% since the beginning of 2023. Further, the release of Australian consumer sentiment improved for the second consecutive month at 5.0%, vs. 3.0% in December.

Ahead of the week, the US economic docket will feature the New York Fed President John Williams, crossing newswires Tuesday. On Wednesday, the calendar will feature Retail Sales, prices paid by producers (PPI), and further Fed speaking.

AUD/USD Key Technical Levels

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price0.6979
Today Daily Change0.0029
Today Daily Change %0.42
Today daily open0.695
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.6807
Daily SMA500.6749
Daily SMA1000.6636
Daily SMA2000.6829
 
Levels
Previous Daily High0.7019
Previous Daily Low0.6941
Previous Weekly High0.6994
Previous Weekly Low0.686
Previous Monthly High0.6893
Previous Monthly Low0.6629
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.6971
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.6989
Daily Pivot Point S10.6921
Daily Pivot Point S20.6892
Daily Pivot Point S30.6843
Daily Pivot Point R10.6999
Daily Pivot Point R20.7048
Daily Pivot Point R30.7077

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading 

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.