AUD/USD bounces off intraday low above 0.7700 on strong Australia Retail Sales

AUD/USD picks up bids on upbeat Aussie catalysts.
Australia Retail Sales grew past-1.0% forecast to 1.4% MoM in March.
Market sentiment remains sluggish amid covid fears, US dollar keeps recovery moves.
Risk catalysts remain the key amid a light calendar going forward.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

AUD/USD recovers from the day’s low of 0.7715 to around 0.7730 following Australia’s upbeat Retail Sales release during early Wednesday. It should, however, be noted that the risk aversion wave, mainly due to the covid woes, tames the bulls.

Australia’s Retail Sales grew 1.4% MoM versus 1.0% expected and -0.8% previous contraction, per the preliminary readings for March. Earlier in the day, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index rose past-0.01% MoM to 0.38% but the AUD/USD prices couldn’t ignore the risk-off mood and stay downbeat.

Read: Aussie Retail Sales beats with 1.4% vs 1% expected, AUD steady

Although Australian media raised hopes of the home-made covid vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna, the estimated manufacturing set-up time of three years dash the optimism especially when the virus resurgence weighs on the mood off-late.

Global coronavirus (COVID-19) cases rose 12% on the weekly basis wherein India was, unfortunately, topping the chart. It’s worth mentioning that Japan is also looking for recalling the virus-led emergencies in Tokyo and surrounding prefectures as news infections escalate.

Read: Coronavirus Update: India leads run-up in global infections, Japan to recall emergencies in Tokyo, Osaka and Hyogo

On a different horizon, the US-China tussles get bitter with Beijing’s firm ‘No’ to the West when it comes to the dragon nation’s internal affairs. Further, no strong developments on the America-Iran talks and escalating tension surrounding the Russia-Ukraine tussles also weigh on the market sentiment.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields and the US dollar index (DXY) extend the previous day’s recovery moves.

Having witnessed the initial market reaction to the key Aussie data, AUD/USD traders should keep their eyes on the risk catalysts for a fresh direction. Given the virus woes dimming the vaccine and stimulus hopes, the quote is likely to remain pressured unless any strong positives pop up, mainly relating to the infections or the remedy.

Technical analysis

AUD/USD stays above the 50-day SMA level, around 0.7720, on a daily closing despite the latest pullback, which in turn keeps buyers hopeful to aim for the 0.7800 resistance.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	0.772
Today Daily Change	-5 pips
Today Daily Change %	-0.06%
Today daily open	0.7725

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.7651
Daily SMA50	0.7723
Daily SMA100	0.7679
Daily SMA200	0.7437

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.7817
Previous Daily Low	0.7708
Previous Weekly High	0.7762
Previous Weekly Low	0.7585
Previous Monthly High	0.785
Previous Monthly Low	0.7562
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.775
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.7775
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.7683
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.7641
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.7574
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.7792
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.7859
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.7901

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.

USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold approaches $4,200 as USD bulls pause for a breather ahead of US NFP report

Gold reverses a modest Asian session dip, climbing back closer to the $4,200 mark in the last hour. Any meaningful upside, however, seems elusive amid a bullish US Dollar as traders keenly await the release of US employment details. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show that the economy added only 90K jobs in September, down from the previous month's reading of 162K.

Pi Network retreats to key support level as selling pressure resurfaces

Pi Network price remains volatile in the near term, hovering around $0.0900 at press time on Friday after losing over 3% the previous day. The pullback warns of a steeper correction, with a risk of breaking below a rising wedge pattern on the four-hour chart. Pi Network struggles to maintain a steady recovery as the price remains capped below the $0.1000 psychological barrier.

US jobs report is due: We expect a hot one

In Japan, September Tokyo core CPI rose to 2.7% (cons: 2.4%). The figure was above the BOJ's 2% target for the first time since January. In commodities, Brent crude futures traded above USD 102/bbl on Friday morning after the WSJ reported that the Pentagon will be sending a third aircraft-carrier strike group and additional soldiers to the Middle East.

Markets are pricing a Fed pause. The jobs data says the hike is still coming

The market has rapidly changed its mind about the Federal Reserve (Fed). Only a week ago, investors saw an October interest-rate hike as the most likely outcome. However, softer inflation and cautious comments from policymakers have since turned a pause into the dominant scenario. Yet beneath that dramatic repricing, the US economy is sending a considerably less dovish message.