AUD/USD bears take a breather around mid-0.6800s with eyes on RBA Minutes, PBoC

AUD/USD picks up bids to 0.6855 while licking the wounds at the highest levels in four months, pausing the two-day downtrend, during early Tuesday morning in Asia. In doing so, the Aussie pair portrays the market’s hopes of witnessing hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as well as upbeat moves of the People’s Bank of China.

While the RBA has already surprised the markets with its second back-to-back rate hike, the Aussie bulls seek more hawkish clues to aim for a July rate lift. It should be noted that the absence of major geopolitical disappointment from the latest round of the US-China talks also underpins the AUD/USD pair’s corrective bounce ahead of the key event. On the same line are the hopes of China’s more stimulus to propel economic recovery.

That said, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently met China President Xi Jinping and Beijing’s top diplomat Wang Yi. After the meeting, China President Xi Jinping said that he hopes through the visit, Blinken will make more positive contributions to stabilizing US-Sino relations. The same restricted the AUD/USD price downside as China is one of its biggest customers in Australia. However, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi said on Monday, “China has no room for compromise and concessions on the Taiwan issue,” Ahead of that, the diplomats held what both called candid and constructive talks on their differences from Taiwan to trade but seemed to agree on little beyond keeping the conversation going.

Additionally, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) quoted China State Council while saying, “The Council considered a batch of macroeconomic policies designed to expand ‘effective demand’, strengthen the real economy and defuse risks in key areas.”

However, multiple top-tier investment banks cut China’s growth forecasts and challenge the AUD/USD trader’s optimism. On the same line are the hawkish Fed concerns and recently upbeat yields.

Federal Reserve (Fed) paused the rate hike trajectory in the last week and signals a July rate lift. However, the US central bank’s monetary policy report to the Congress and the latest comments from the officials have been hawkish. That said, the Fed policy report for Congress said, “Inflation in the US is well above target and the labor market remains very tight,” as per Reuters, which in turn put a floor under the US Dollar Index (DXY) and weighs on the AUD/USD Price. Among the Fed talkers, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also appeared a bit hawkish and helped the DXY to reverse from a multi-day low.

Against this backdrop, S&P500 Futures print mild losses and the US Treasury bond yields begin the week on a front foot, taking clues from the UK and Europe.

Moving on, RBA Minutes need to defend the surprise rate hikes to keep the AUD/USD buyers on the table as the PBoC rate cut is already priced-in and may not be able to provide much to cheer. Additionally, comments from RBA and the Fed Officials are also scheduled for the day and may entertain the pair traders.

Technical analysis

Despite the latest pause in the AUD/USD pair’s retreat from the multi-day top, a rejection of the three-week-old bullish channel, by a downside break of the channel’s support line of near 0.6885 at the latest, keeps the Aussie pair bears hopeful.