AUD: Strength in October – ANZ

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

The month of October has tended to favour the AUD and NZD historically as AUD/USD and NZD/USD have risen in 12 and 10 out of the last 17 years, with an average spot gain of 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively, points out the research team at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“In contrast to NZD, AUD’s outperformance goes beyond the G10 space. AUD also tends to fare well against Asian currencies, especially against the INR and JPY, having risen in 14 and 13 out of the last 17 years, respectively. On the other hand, NZD strength in EM Asia crosses is less pronounced and consistent compared to the AUD.”

“Based on our analysis, the best seasonal returns in October lie in going long AUD and NZD against the SEK. AUD/SEK and NZD/SEK have risen in 15 out of the last 17 years with average spot gains of 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively. One of the only two years when the crosses did not follow the seasonal pattern was during the 2008 global financial crisis.”

“With markets slowly pricing in a tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the AUD could be set to repeat its seasonal outperformance this October. Whether the NZD will follow the seasonal pattern hinges on the outcome of negotiations on forming the next government after the 23 September general election results in New Zealand.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

AUD/USD: Next on the upside is 0.7000

AUD/USD leaves behind Monday’s downtick and trades with marked gains, approaching the critical 0.7000 yardstick ahead of the opening bell in Asia on Wednesday. The pair’s solid performance follows the Greenback’s fresh downward trend amid cooling geopolitical tensions and caution ahead of the US CPI data.

USD/JPY extends retreat below 158.50 as intervention risks loom

USD/JPY is dropping below 158.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day winning streak and pulling back from an over two-week top touched the previous day, despite Japan's soft PPI inflation print. Bulls turn cautious amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen, which, in turn, weighs on the pair.

Gold: Bears struggle to breach below $4,150

Gold now gives away its initial gains and resumes its decline, revisiting the $4,160 region per troy ounce on Tuesday. The precious metal’s pullback comes despite the fresh downward trend in the Greenback in combination with a mixed performance of US Treasury yields across the board and easing tensions on the geopolitical front.

HYPE falls to $80 as ETF outflows and flat volume weigh on Hyperliquid

Hyperliquid (HYPE) declines 4% on Tuesday, briefly touching $80 as perpetual volumes stay flat and institutional interest decreases. Perpetual volume on the platform saw a modest increase last week from $41.5 billion to $42.5 billion. The metric matters because 99% of fees Hyperliquid captures from trading volume flow toward token buybacks.

S&P 500 earnings just hit a record. The AI data centre bill hasn't landed yet

S&P 500 companies are on track for a third straight quarter of earnings growth above 25%, according to FactSet. Their profit margin hit 17% in the April-June quarter, the highest in FactSet data going back to 2009. The cash behind those earnings has been shrinking for two years, and almost all of the shrinkage is in the handful of companies building data centres for artificial intelligence (AI).

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?