AUD/NZD sees the tide turn, awaiting key Australian and New Zealand data

The AUD/NZD sellers stepped in on Tuesday, wiping all the daily gains and pushing the cross to 1.0860. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) moves are keenly awaited by investors, who await guidance.

In New Zealand, eyes are on the June ANZ consumer and business surveys to be released this Wednesday. The RBNZ plans its first rate cut for Q3 2025, which contradicts the market's expectations of a cut in November but incoming data will dictate the pace of the bets. In case New Zealand’s economy sees more signs of weakness the bank might consider sooner cuts.

In Australia, the Westpac Consumer Confidence data drew attention with a 1.7% rise to 83.6 in June from 82.2 in May- marking the first increase since February. The key data for the week would, however, come through with the release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday.

The swaps market now sees less than 25% odds of a rate cut by December 2024, which intensifies to around 65% in February 2025. Despite the headline expectation to climb by two ticks to a five-month peak at 3.8% year on year, the RBA remains patient, expecting a considerable period before inflation sustainably sits within the 2-3% target range. The outcome of inflation figures might see significant volatility in the Aussie’s price dynamics.

AUD/NZD technical analysis

In the near term, the technical outlook for AUD/NZD appears positive, despite indicators flattening and hinting at a potential consolidation of the recent 0.80% gains achieved last week. This is supported by the cross maintaining its position above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Furthermore, the 20-day SMA completed a bullish crossover with the 100-day SMA which reinforces the positive outlook.

AUD/NZD daily chart