AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Challenges bear cross on upbeat Aussie Q4 inflation

AUD/JPY extends the week-start rebound from late December lows.
Receding bearish bias of MACD joins firmer data to favor bulls.
Australia Q4 CPI, RBA Trimmed Mean CPI crossed forecasts and prior, NAB data came in softer for December.
Death cross keeps sellers hopeful, three-week-old resistance line adds to the upside filters.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

AUD/JPY justifies strong Australia inflation data by refreshing intraday top around 81.80, currently up 0.25% intraday, during early Tuesday.

In doing so, the cross-currency pair stretches the previous day’s bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of December-January upside, around 80.90.

That said, Australia’s fourth quarter (Q4) Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than 1.0% forecast and 0.8% QoQ to 1.3% while the YoY figures crossed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) SOMP projections to 3.5%, versus 3.2% expected and 3.0% prior. Further, the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI crossed 0.7% market consensus with 1.0% figures on QoQ while also rising past 2.4% YoY forecast to 2.6%.

Read: Breaking: Aussie CPI comes in hotter and lifts AUD over 26 pips off the bat

Other than the fundamentals and 61.8% Fibo, The corrective pullback also gains support from the receding bearish bias of the MACD.

Even so, a bear cross between the 50-SMA and 200-SMA keeps sellers hopeful until the quote stays below 82.45.

Also acting as an upside hurdle is a descending resistance line from January 05, near 82.70.

Alternatively, pullback moves may aim for the key Fibonacci level retest, near 80.90, a break of which will strengthen the bearish approach towards the 80.00 threshold. Following that, December’s low near 78.80 will be in focus.

AUD/JPY: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further recovery expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	81.6
Today Daily Change	0.20
Today Daily Change %	0.25%
Today daily open	81.4

Trends
Daily SMA20	82.9
Daily SMA50	82.17
Daily SMA100	82.41
Daily SMA200	82.59

Levels
Previous Daily High	81.83
Previous Daily Low	80.7
Previous Weekly High	82.97
Previous Weekly Low	81.49
Previous Monthly High	83.76
Previous Monthly Low	78.79
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	81.13
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	81.4
Daily Pivot Point S1	80.79
Daily Pivot Point S2	80.17
Daily Pivot Point S3	79.65
Daily Pivot Point R1	81.92
Daily Pivot Point R2	82.44
Daily Pivot Point R3	83.05

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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