AUD/JPY advances to near 102.50 despite the fear of Japan’s intervention


  • AUD/JPY gains ground as RBA is expected to maintain higher rates for an extended period.
  • The fear of Japan’s intervention could limit the advance of the pair.
  • Australian Retail Sales (Q1) declined 0.4% in Q1, swinging from the previous quarter’s 0.4% growth.

AUD/JPY continues its winning streak that began on May 2, trading around 102.50 during the European session on Thursday. However, the fear of intervention from the Japanese authorities is expected to cap the AUD/JPY cross's upward movement.

Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surged to around 0.9%, approaching six-month highs in response to the summary of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) April policy meeting. During the meeting, the board acknowledged upside risks to inflation and deliberated scenarios that could necessitate further interest rate hikes. This statement underscored BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent remarks hinting at the possibility of multiple rate increases in the upcoming months.

On the AUD front, Australian Retail Sales (QoQ), which measures the volume of goods sold by retailers in Australia, saw a decline of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2024. This represents a reversal from the 0.4% growth observed in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) may encounter challenges due to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s less hawkish stance, particularly following the Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) for March, which surged to 3.5%, surpassing the expected reading of 3.4%.

The RBA acknowledged a recent halt in progress toward controlling inflation, maintaining a stance of keeping options open. RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized the importance of remaining vigilant regarding inflation risks. Bullock believes that current interest rates are suitably positioned to guide inflation back within its target range of 2-3% by the second half of 2025 and to the midpoint by 2026.

AUD/JPY

Overview
Today last price 102.49
Today Daily Change 0.16
Today Daily Change % 0.16
Today daily open 102.33
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 100.79
Daily SMA50 99.47
Daily SMA100 98.35
Daily SMA200 96.89
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 102.39
Previous Daily Low 101.82
Previous Weekly High 105.04
Previous Weekly Low 99.93
Previous Monthly High 105.04
Previous Monthly Low 97.78
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 102.17
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 102.04
Daily Pivot Point S1 101.97
Daily Pivot Point S2 101.62
Daily Pivot Point S3 101.41
Daily Pivot Point R1 102.54
Daily Pivot Point R2 102.74
Daily Pivot Point R3 103.1

 

 

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