US GDP revision Preview: First quarter growth seen slightly higher than originally estimated
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US GDP Q1 FIRST ESTIMATE
US GDP comes in above expectations
Advance GDP +2.3% - well above forecast Thus was the initial look at first quarter GDP and so arguably the most important, unless subsequent revisions prove significant. Analysts had been busy revising down their forecast for the number. Nevertheless, today’s release will be a relief as it suggests that the US economy is not yet ready to roll over.
US GDP beat expectations with an annualized rise of 2.3%, better than 2% officially expected and as seen in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow.
However, the better than expected Durable Goods Orders report on Thursday probably raised expectations.
This explains the relatively muted reaction in markets. The US Dollar ticked higher but did not go too far.
EUR/USD dropped below 1.2060 but recovered to 1.2070.
GBP/USD continues struggling with the lows around 1.3760.
USD/JPY reached a new high of 109.53 but also fell below 109.40 in the aftermath.
Among the components, Personal Consumption is up 1.1% as expected and inventories contributed 0.43%.
All in all, the growth rate is slower than in Q4 2017, which was 2.9% but above the averages for the initial quarter of the year.
This has been one of the better weeks for the US Dollar in quite a while. It will be interesting to see how the greenback ends the week.
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