Normality disappeared quickly in the US as activity contracted for the first time five years under the mandatory closure of much of the economy in the Coronavirus fight. Even though growth in the first two months of the quarter had been estimated at 2.7% the precipitous collapse of the labor market in the second half of the month and the shuttering of many businesses drained an enormous amount of production and consumption from the economy.
First US GDP release shows economy deteriorating faster than expected amid coronavirus crisis
The hard data is out – and it is heartbreaking, especially as it is only the beginning. The US economy squeezed by 4.8% annualized. Officials admit the data is incomplete, it was released later than expected, and one data provider erroneously published a positive figure. Yet as the dust is settling, the data is still devastating – the worst contraction since the financial crisis and at -4.8% annualized, it is worse than 4% expected.
US GDP April PREVIEW
American economic growth, devastated by the business closures and labor losses ordered in defense of the Coronavirus, is set for the largest quarterly contraction since the financial crisis. Annualized gross domestic product (GDP), the widest accounting of national economic activity, is forecast to shrink 4% in the first quarter. Prior to the virus the economy was running at about 2.7% according to the Atlanta Fed GDP Now model.
US GDP January REVIEW
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the US is expected to grow by 2.1% at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2019, the first estimate published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed on Thursday. This reading matched the third quarter's growth rate and the market expectation.
US GDP OCTOBER REVIEW
The US economy is showing more signs of weakness – and this is set to catch up with the Federal Reserve and the US Dollar. US Gross Domestic Product has grown by 1.9% annualized in the third quarter, better than 1.6% expected but below 2% seen in the second quarter. However, the marginal slowdown marks an ongoing divergence in the economy.
US ECONOMIC ACTIVITY TABLE
|Gross Domestic Product||Impact||Last||Trend||Last 3||Last 5||Last 10|
|GDP Price Index||3||1.60%||Down||1.60%||1.64%||1.91%|
|Production activity||Impact||Last||Trend||Last 3||Last 5||Last 10|
|Non-Def Cap Goods exAir||3||-0.50%||Neutral||-0.67%||0.14%||0.01%|
|Durable Goods exDef||2||-1.20%||Down||-0.27%||0.18%||0.20%|
|Durable Goods exTrans||2||-0.30%||Neutral||-0.17%||0.20%||0.04%|
|Factory Orders MoM||2||-0.60%||Neutral||0.23%||-0.02%||-0.02%|
|Industrial Production MoM||2||-0.40%||Neutral||0.10%||0.18%||0.05%|
|Sales activity||Impact||Last||Trend||Last 3||Last 5||Last 10|
|Retail Sales Control Group||3||0.00%||Neutral||0.40%||0.50%||0.31%|
|Retail Sales MoM||2||-0.30%||Neutral||0.37%||0.36%||0.27%|
|Retail Sales exAutos MoM||2||-0.10%||Neutral||0.37%||0.36%||0.27%|
|Manufacturing Surveys||Impact||Last||Trend||Last 3||Last 5||Last 10|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||3||48.30||Down||48.40||49.62||51.91|
|ISM Prices Paid||2||45.50||Down||47.06||46.84||49.07|
|Markit Manufacturing PMI||2||51.30||Neutral||50.90||50.74||51.71|
|Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey||2||5.60||Up||11.47||11.30||10.82|
|NY Empire State Manufacturing Index||1||4.00||Neutral||3.60||1.30||5.08|
|Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index||1||-5.10||Down||-0.30||-3.86||-0.16|
|Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index||1||8.00||Neutral||0.00||-3.00||2.30|
|Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity||1||8.00||Neutral||5.67||1.60||3.70|
|Services-related Surveys||Impact||Last||Trend||Last 3||Last 5||Last 10|
|ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI||3||54.70||Down||54.57||54.50||55.74|
|Markit Services PMI||2||50.60||Down||50.73||51.34||52.61|
|Markit PMI Composite||2||50.90||Down||50.87||51.78||52.51|
|Chicago Fed National Activity Index||2||-0.45||Down||-0.24||-0.14||-0.16|
|ISM - NY Business Conditions Index||1||47.70||Down||46.93||46.86||55.16|
|NFIB Business Optimism Index||1||101.80||Neutral||103.20||103.58||103.05|