Gross Domestic Product


August US GDP

US GDP Quick Analysis: Investment contraction may down the dollar

Headlines do not always tell the full story – and that is the story in today's US Gross Domestic Product report. The revised data for the second quarter has shown that the economy grew by 2.0% in the second quarter – a minor downgrade from 2.1% originally reported – but exactly as expected. This is well within the "new normal" rate of growth – but looking under the hood reveals some issues.

US ECONOMIC ACTIVITY TABLE

Gross Domestic ProductImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
GDP Annualized32.10%Neutral2.47%3.00%2.76%
GDP Price Index32.50%Neutral1.67%1.96%1.93%
Production activityImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
Non-Def Cap Goods exAir30.40%Up0.90%0.62%0.30%
Durable Goods22.10%Up0.93%0.68%0.49%
Durable Goods exDef21.40%Up1.30%0.74%0.41%
Durable Goods exTrans2-0.40%Neutral0.37%0.30%0.09%
Factory Orders MoM20.60%Neutral-0.30%0.10%-0.13%
Industrial Production MoM2-0.20%Neutral0.07%-0.08%0.01%
Capacity Utilization177.50%Down77.83%78.04%78.22%
Sales activityImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
Retail Sales Control Group31.00%Up0.73%0.64%0.36%
Retail Sales MoM20.70%Up0.53%0.60%0.28%
Retail Sales exAutos MoM21.00%Up0.63%0.64%0.28%
Business Inventories10.00%Down0.27%0.22%0.33%
Wholesale Inventories10.20%Down0.20%0.26%0.41%
Manufacturing SurveysImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
ISM Manufacturing PMI351.20Down51.6752.6254.50
ISM Prices Paid245.10Down48.7350.1053.67
Markit Manufacturing PMI249.90Down50.3050.8052.34
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey216.80Up12.9712.8011.29
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index14.80Down0.175.687.90
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index12.70Down-5.23-3.801.59
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index11.00Down-2.670.003.00
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity1-2.00Down-3.670.602.40
Services-related SurveysImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI353.70Down55.2355.4657.23
Markit Services PMI250.90Down51.8051.8653.39
Markit PMI Composite250.90Down51.6751.7853.25
Chicago PMI244.40Down49.4351.9257.12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index2-0.36Down-0.14-0.21-0.10
ISM - NY Business Conditions Index143.50Down47.3757.2661.38
NFIB Business Optimism Index1104.70Up104.33103.66103.78

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