Gross Domestic Product

First US GDP release shows economy deteriorating faster than expected amid coronavirus crisis

US First Quarter GDP Quick Analysis: Can a recession be avoided?

Joseph Trevisani WorldWideMarkets

Normality disappeared quickly in the US as activity contracted for the first time five years under the mandatory closure of much of the economy in the Coronavirus fight. Even though growth in the first two months of the quarter had been estimated at 2.7% the precipitous collapse of the labor market in the second half of the month and the shuttering of many businesses drained an enormous amount of production and consumption from the economy.

GDP Quick Analysis: Early crash means more Fed stimulus, stocks positive, dollar negative

Yohay Elam Forex Crunch

The hard data is out – and it is heartbreaking, especially as it is only the beginning. The US economy squeezed by 4.8% annualized. Officials admit the data is incomplete, it was released later than expected, and one data provider erroneously published a positive figure. Yet as the dust is settling, the data is still devastating – the worst contraction since the financial crisis and at -4.8% annualized, it is worse than 4% expected.

US GDP April PREVIEW

US First Quarter GDP Preview: Prelude to catastrophe or singularity?

Joseph Trevisani FXStreet

American economic growth, devastated by the business closures and labor losses ordered in defense of the Coronavirus, is set for the largest quarterly contraction since the financial crisis. Annualized gross domestic product (GDP), the widest accounting of national economic activity, is forecast to shrink 4% in the first quarter. Prior to the virus the economy was running at about 2.7% according to the Atlanta Fed GDP Now model.

US GDP January REVIEW

US: Annual GDP expanded 2.1% in Q4 (first estimate) as expected

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the US is expected to grow by 2.1% at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2019, the first estimate published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed on Thursday. This reading matched the third quarter's growth rate and the market expectation.

US GDP OCTOBER REVIEW

GDP Quick Analysis: USD may fall as underlying weakness justifies dovish Fed rate cut

Yohay Elam FXStreet

The US economy is showing more signs of weakness – and this is set to catch up with the Federal Reserve and the US Dollar. US Gross Domestic Product has grown by 1.9% annualized in the third quarter, better than 1.6% expected but below 2% seen in the second quarter. However, the marginal slowdown marks an ongoing divergence in the economy.

US ECONOMIC ACTIVITY TABLE

Gross Domestic Product	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
GDP Annualized	3	1.90%	Down	2.33%	2.52%	2.80%
GDP Price Index	3	1.60%	Down	1.60%	1.64%	1.91%

Production activity	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
Non-Def Cap Goods exAir	3	-0.50%	Neutral	-0.67%	0.14%	0.01%
Durable Goods	2	-1.10%	Neutral	0.40%	0.16%	0.00%
Durable Goods exDef	2	-1.20%	Down	-0.27%	0.18%	0.20%
Durable Goods exTrans	2	-0.30%	Neutral	-0.17%	0.20%	0.04%
Factory Orders MoM	2	-0.60%	Neutral	0.23%	-0.02%	-0.02%
Industrial Production MoM	2	-0.40%	Neutral	0.10%	0.18%	0.05%
Capacity Utilization	1	77.50%	Down	77.63%	77.76%	78.13%

Sales activity	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
Retail Sales Control Group	3	0.00%	Neutral	0.40%	0.50%	0.31%
Retail Sales MoM	2	-0.30%	Neutral	0.37%	0.36%	0.27%
Retail Sales exAutos MoM	2	-0.10%	Neutral	0.37%	0.36%	0.27%
Business Inventories	1	0.00%	Down	0.10%	0.22%	0.31%
Wholesale Inventories	1	-0.40%	Down	0.00%	0.08%	0.28%

Manufacturing Surveys	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
ISM Manufacturing PMI	3	48.30	Down	48.40	49.62	51.91
ISM Prices Paid	2	45.50	Down	47.06	46.84	49.07
Markit Manufacturing PMI	2	51.30	Neutral	50.90	50.74	51.71
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey	2	5.60	Up	11.47	11.30	10.82
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	1	4.00	Neutral	3.60	1.30	5.08
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	1	-5.10	Down	-0.30	-3.86	-0.16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	1	8.00	Neutral	0.00	-3.00	2.30
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity	1	8.00	Neutral	5.67	1.60	3.70

Services-related Surveys	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	3	54.70	Down	54.57	54.50	55.74
Markit Services PMI	2	50.60	Down	50.73	51.34	52.61
Markit PMI Composite	2	50.90	Down	50.87	51.78	52.51
Chicago PMI	2	43.20	Down	46.90	46.96	52.17
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	2	-0.45	Down	-0.24	-0.14	-0.16
ISM - NY Business Conditions Index	1	47.70	Down	46.93	46.86	55.16
NFIB Business Optimism Index	1	101.80	Neutral	103.20	103.58	103.05