Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the US is expected to grow by 2.1% at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2019, the first estimate published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed on Thursday. This reading matched the third quarter's growth rate and the market expectation.
The US economy is showing more signs of weakness – and this is set to catch up with the Federal Reserve and the US Dollar. US Gross Domestic Product has grown by 1.9% annualized in the third quarter, better than 1.6% expected but below 2% seen in the second quarter. However, the marginal slowdown marks an ongoing divergence in the economy.
| Gross Domestic Product | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Annualized | 3 | 1.90% | Down | 2.33% | 2.52% | 2.80% |
| GDP Price Index | 3 | 1.60% | Down | 1.60% | 1.64% | 1.91% |
| Production activity | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Def Cap Goods exAir | 3 | -0.50% | Neutral | -0.67% | 0.14% | 0.01% |
| Durable Goods | 2 | -1.10% | Neutral | 0.40% | 0.16% | 0.00% |
| Durable Goods exDef | 2 | -1.20% | Down | -0.27% | 0.18% | 0.20% |
| Durable Goods exTrans | 2 | -0.30% | Neutral | -0.17% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| Factory Orders MoM | 2 | -0.60% | Neutral | 0.23% | -0.02% | -0.02% |
| Industrial Production MoM | 2 | -0.40% | Neutral | 0.10% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| Capacity Utilization | 1 | 77.50% | Down | 77.63% | 77.76% | 78.13% |
| Sales activity | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Control Group | 3 | 0.00% | Neutral | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.31% |
| Retail Sales MoM | 2 | -0.30% | Neutral | 0.37% | 0.36% | 0.27% |
| Retail Sales exAutos MoM | 2 | -0.10% | Neutral | 0.37% | 0.36% | 0.27% |
| Business Inventories | 1 | 0.00% | Down | 0.10% | 0.22% | 0.31% |
| Wholesale Inventories | 1 | -0.40% | Down | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.28% |
| Manufacturing Surveys | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 3 | 48.30 | Down | 48.40 | 49.62 | 51.91 |
| ISM Prices Paid | 2 | 45.50 | Down | 47.06 | 46.84 | 49.07 |
| Markit Manufacturing PMI | 2 | 51.30 | Neutral | 50.90 | 50.74 | 51.71 |
| Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey | 2 | 5.60 | Up | 11.47 | 11.30 | 10.82 |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 1 | 4.00 | Neutral | 3.60 | 1.30 | 5.08 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 1 | -5.10 | Down | -0.30 | -3.86 | -0.16 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 1 | 8.00 | Neutral | 0.00 | -3.00 | 2.30 |
| Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity | 1 | 8.00 | Neutral | 5.67 | 1.60 | 3.70 |
| Services-related Surveys | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 3 | 54.70 | Down | 54.57 | 54.50 | 55.74 |
| Markit Services PMI | 2 | 50.60 | Down | 50.73 | 51.34 | 52.61 |
| Markit PMI Composite | 2 | 50.90 | Down | 50.87 | 51.78 | 52.51 |
| Chicago PMI | 2 | 43.20 | Down | 46.90 | 46.96 | 52.17 |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 2 | -0.45 | Down | -0.24 | -0.14 | -0.16 |
| ISM - NY Business Conditions Index | 1 | 47.70 | Down | 46.93 | 46.86 | 55.16 |
| NFIB Business Optimism Index | 1 | 101.80 | Neutral | 103.20 | 103.58 | 103.05 |
