Gross Domestic Product

August US GDP

US GDP Quick Analysis: Investment contraction may down the dollar

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Headlines do not always tell the full story – and that is the story in today's US Gross Domestic Product report. The revised data for the second quarter has shown that the economy grew by 2.0% in the second quarter – a minor downgrade from 2.1% originally reported – but exactly as expected. This is well within the "new normal" rate of growth – but looking under the hood reveals some issues.

US ECONOMIC ACTIVITY TABLE

Gross Domestic Product	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
GDP Annualized	3	2.10%	Neutral	2.47%	3.00%	2.76%
GDP Price Index	3	2.50%	Neutral	1.67%	1.96%	1.93%

Production activity	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
Non-Def Cap Goods exAir	3	0.40%	Up	0.90%	0.62%	0.30%
Durable Goods	2	2.10%	Up	0.93%	0.68%	0.49%
Durable Goods exDef	2	1.40%	Up	1.30%	0.74%	0.41%
Durable Goods exTrans	2	-0.40%	Neutral	0.37%	0.30%	0.09%
Factory Orders MoM	2	0.60%	Neutral	-0.30%	0.10%	-0.13%
Industrial Production MoM	2	-0.20%	Neutral	0.07%	-0.08%	0.01%
Capacity Utilization	1	77.50%	Down	77.83%	78.04%	78.22%

Sales activity	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
Retail Sales Control Group	3	1.00%	Up	0.73%	0.64%	0.36%
Retail Sales MoM	2	0.70%	Up	0.53%	0.60%	0.28%
Retail Sales exAutos MoM	2	1.00%	Up	0.63%	0.64%	0.28%
Business Inventories	1	0.00%	Down	0.27%	0.22%	0.33%
Wholesale Inventories	1	0.20%	Down	0.20%	0.26%	0.41%

Manufacturing Surveys	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
ISM Manufacturing PMI	3	51.20	Down	51.67	52.62	54.50
ISM Prices Paid	2	45.10	Down	48.73	50.10	53.67
Markit Manufacturing PMI	2	49.90	Down	50.30	50.80	52.34
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey	2	16.80	Up	12.97	12.80	11.29
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	1	4.80	Down	0.17	5.68	7.90
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	1	2.70	Down	-5.23	-3.80	1.59
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	1	1.00	Down	-2.67	0.00	3.00
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity	1	-2.00	Down	-3.67	0.60	2.40

Services-related Surveys	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	3	53.70	Down	55.23	55.46	57.23
Markit Services PMI	2	50.90	Down	51.80	51.86	53.39
Markit PMI Composite	2	50.90	Down	51.67	51.78	53.25
Chicago PMI	2	44.40	Down	49.43	51.92	57.12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	2	-0.36	Down	-0.14	-0.21	-0.10
ISM - NY Business Conditions Index	1	43.50	Down	47.37	57.26	61.38
NFIB Business Optimism Index	1	104.70	Up	104.33	103.66	103.78