The US economy is alive and kicking – hardly justifying the planned Fed rate cut next week – and certainly not a pre-announcement about a full loosening cycle. On this background, the greenback can continue rising.
| Gross Domestic Product | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Annualized | 3 | 2.10% | Neutral | 2.47% | 3.00% | 2.76% |
| GDP Price Index | 3 | 2.50% | Neutral | 1.67% | 1.96% | 1.93% |
| Production activity | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Def Cap Goods exAir | 3 | 1.90% | Up | 0.47% | 0.52% | 0.20% |
| Durable Goods | 2 | 2.00% | Neutral | -0.47% | -0.06% | -0.16% |
| Durable Goods exDef | 2 | 3.10% | Neutral | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.27% |
| Durable Goods exTrans | 2 | 1.20% | Up | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.14% |
| Factory Orders MoM | 2 | 0.60% | Neutral | -0.30% | 0.10% | -0.13% |
| Industrial Production MoM | 2 | 0.00% | Neutral | -0.03% | -0.02% | 0.06% |
| Capacity Utilization | 1 | 78.10% | Neutral | 77.97% | 78.18% | 78.28% |
| Sales activity | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Control Group | 3 | 0.70% | Up | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.31% |
| Retail Sales MoM | 2 | 0.40% | Up | 0.23% | 0.42% | 0.22% |
| Retail Sales exAutos MoM | 2 | 0.50% | Up | 0.33% | 0.36% | 0.17% |
| Business Inventories | 1 | 0.30% | Neutral | 0.27% | 0.38% | 0.38% |
| Wholesale Inventories | 1 | 0.00% | Down | 0.40% | 0.26% | 0.49% |
| Manufacturing Surveys | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 3 | 51.20 | Down | 51.67 | 52.62 | 54.50 |
| ISM Prices Paid | 2 | 45.10 | Down | 48.73 | 50.10 | 53.67 |
| Markit Manufacturing PMI | 2 | 50.40 | Down | 50.50 | 51.30 | 52.92 |
| Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey | 2 | 21.80 | Up | 12.90 | 12.18 | 11.83 |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 1 | 4.30 | Down | 7.37 | 7.18 | 10.39 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 1 | -6.30 | Down | -7.90 | -2.68 | 4.26 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 1 | -12.00 | Down | -1.33 | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity | 1 | -6.00 | Down | -2.33 | 4.40 | 3.10 |
| Services-related Surveys | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 3 | 53.70 | Down | 55.23 | 55.46 | 57.23 |
| Markit Services PMI | 2 | 53.00 | Down | 51.80 | 52.74 | 53.78 |
| Markit PMI Composite | 2 | 52.60 | Down | 51.67 | 52.52 | 53.65 |
| Chicago PMI | 2 | 44.40 | Down | 49.43 | 51.92 | 57.12 |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 2 | -0.02 | Down | -0.17 | -0.19 | -0.05 |
| ISM - NY Business Conditions Index | 1 | 43.50 | Down | 47.37 | 57.26 | 61.38 |
| NFIB Business Optimism Index | 1 | 104.70 | Up | 104.33 | 103.66 | 103.78 |
