Gross Domestic Product

First US GDP release shows economy deteriorating faster than expected amid coronavirus crisis

US First Quarter GDP Quick Analysis: Can a recession be avoided?

Normality disappeared quickly in the US as activity contracted for the first time five years under the mandatory closure of much of the economy in the Coronavirus fight. Even though growth in the first two months of the quarter had been estimated at 2.7% the precipitous collapse of the labor market in the second half of the month and the shuttering of many businesses drained an enormous amount of production and consumption from the economy.

GDP Quick Analysis: Early crash means more Fed stimulus, stocks positive, dollar negative

The hard data is out – and it is heartbreaking, especially as it is only the beginning. The US economy squeezed by 4.8% annualized. Officials admit the data is incomplete, it was released later than expected, and one data provider erroneously published a positive figure. Yet as the dust is settling, the data is still devastating – the worst contraction since the financial crisis and at -4.8% annualized, it is worse than 4% expected.


US First Quarter GDP Preview: Prelude to catastrophe or singularity?

American economic growth, devastated by the business closures and labor losses ordered in defense of the Coronavirus, is set for the largest quarterly contraction since the financial crisis. Annualized gross domestic product (GDP), the widest accounting of national economic activity, is forecast to shrink 4% in the first quarter. Prior to the virus the economy was running at about 2.7% according to the Atlanta Fed GDP Now model.




Gross Domestic ProductImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
GDP Annualized31.90%Down2.33%2.52%2.80%
GDP Price Index31.60%Down1.60%1.64%1.91%
Production activityImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
Non-Def Cap Goods exAir3-0.50%Neutral-0.67%0.14%0.01%
Durable Goods2-1.10%Neutral0.40%0.16%0.00%
Durable Goods exDef2-1.20%Down-0.27%0.18%0.20%
Durable Goods exTrans2-0.30%Neutral-0.17%0.20%0.04%
Factory Orders MoM2-0.60%Neutral0.23%-0.02%-0.02%
Industrial Production MoM2-0.40%Neutral0.10%0.18%0.05%
Capacity Utilization177.50%Down77.63%77.76%78.13%
Sales activityImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
Retail Sales Control Group30.00%Neutral0.40%0.50%0.31%
Retail Sales MoM2-0.30%Neutral0.37%0.36%0.27%
Retail Sales exAutos MoM2-0.10%Neutral0.37%0.36%0.27%
Business Inventories10.00%Down0.10%0.22%0.31%
Wholesale Inventories1-0.40%Down0.00%0.08%0.28%
Manufacturing SurveysImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
ISM Manufacturing PMI348.30Down48.4049.6251.91
ISM Prices Paid245.50Down47.0646.8449.07
Markit Manufacturing PMI251.30Neutral50.9050.7451.71
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey25.60Up11.4711.3010.82
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index14.00Neutral3.601.305.08
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index1-5.10Down-0.30-3.86-0.16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index18.00Neutral0.00-3.002.30
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity18.00Neutral5.671.603.70
Services-related SurveysImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI354.70Down54.5754.5055.74
Markit Services PMI250.60Down50.7351.3452.61
Markit PMI Composite250.90Down50.8751.7852.51
Chicago PMI243.20Down46.9046.9652.17
Chicago Fed National Activity Index2-0.45Down-0.24-0.14-0.16
ISM - NY Business Conditions Index147.70Down46.9346.8655.16
NFIB Business Optimism Index1101.80Neutral103.20103.58103.05

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Developments since our June monthly economic outlook