No is normal

No, this time your trade won't work.

No, the price isn't going to continue going your way.

No, just because you were right moments ago, it’s no longer the case.

And until you:

  • Believe this at a deep level, and.

  • Arm yourself with the skills to make pinpoint entries, despite these 'No's,

You'll forever be an emotional ticking time bomb, with reactional trades ready to explode.

Now keep reading to find out why it happens and how to overcome it—with real trading from this week to demonstrate.

While my edges are not made public, I'll make one exception and share one of the most significant:

Outlasting the competition. But what does it mean?

To illustrate: What happens at the start of a marathon?

Everyone is running at roughly the same pace. Even the casual runner can keep pace with a world title-holding marathon runner in the early phase of the race.

But over time, the strongest athletes break away from the pack. And you'll see the same behaviours in the market.

Why?

You know the market functions to take money from the pack to pass to the strongest traders.

But it's not something the pack does by choice. The market needs to intervene to force their hand, right?

During this intervention, the best-intentioned traders fall victim to their lack of market understanding and skill.

You'll see real trading to demonstrate this in a minute. But first, remember what the best trader of our time, Jim Simons, said about trading?

"We don't want to predict price, but we want to predict when other market participants are going to do something."

Jim Simons is referring to game theory. 

I bolded the word "game" because, unlike a regular marathon, the separation of the leaders from the pack is anything but regular when it comes to trading.

It can happen sooner or later, for longer or for shorter, or partially or completely—that's the nature of a competitive game.

And you never know beforehand what it is going to be like 'this time'.

This shows why it's vital to your trading success to know how—using a swimming term—to 'tread water'. Trades that don't take you forward but don't sink you either.

To enter trades that go your way yet take the money that's available before the trade fails to continue, as if the trade worked 'kind of'.

And to know when you can enter and use the market's money to add to your position and take more out of the market on the rare occasion this opportunity occurs.

And to rinse and repeat.

You'll see examples of all of these scenarios demonstrated below. 

Tuesday's trading:

Eight trades were made between midday and six in the evening. With an hour spent in the planning stage before trading—this is a typical trading day.

The best plans allow you to double, triple, and quadruple dip—but only if you have the skills to enter and exit with precision—to ensure you turn the 'No's' we covered earlier into opportunities.  

With the exception of one long scalp, all trades were acting out the same daily game plan—trade short between 0.6760 and 0.6747. 

Chart

Chart

Chart

Excerpt from Friday's trading Below you see what treading water looks like.

Neither going forward nor backwards.

This is the essence of outlasting the competition.

You don't know when, but eventually, the trade that pays presents itself.

But you must be trading to take advantage—regardless of how long you spend treading water beforehand.  Make sense?

Yet because treading water trading is challenging, while you might not see movement in your account balance, it advances your skills.

What happens next?

Treading water trading prepares you to extract maximum payment from the market when the trade that pays comes. It makes you a much better trader.

See treading water: Blue arrows are buys, and pink arrows are exits.

Chart


Forex and derivatives trading is a highly competitive and often extremely fast-paced environment. It only rewards individuals who attain the required level of skill and expertise to compete. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss to unskilled and inexperienced players. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD trades with negative bias around 1.1730 amid recovering USD; downside seems limited

EUR/USD trades with negative bias around 1.1730 amid recovering USD; downside seems limited

The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a softer note, though it remains within striking distance of the highest level since early October, touched last Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1730 region, down less than 0.10% for the day.

GBP/USD holds steady above mid-1.3300s as traders await key data and BoE this week

GBP/USD holds steady above mid-1.3300s as traders await key data and BoE this week

The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive during the Asian session on Monday, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the 200-day Simple Moving Average pivotal support. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3360 region, nearly unchanged for the day.

USD/JPY extends losses below 155.50 amid Fed-BoJ monetary policy divergence

USD/JPY extends losses below 155.50 amid Fed-BoJ monetary policy divergence

USD/JPY drops further below 155.50 in the Asian session on Monday. The pair remains offered as the Japanese Yen continues to draw support from the expectations of Fed-BoJ monetary policy divergence and a risk-off market profile. Fedspeak is next in focus.


Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD trades with negative bias around 1.1730 amid recovering USD; downside seems limited

EUR/USD trades with negative bias around 1.1730 amid recovering USD; downside seems limited

The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a softer note, though it remains within striking distance of the highest level since early October, touched last Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1730 region, down less than 0.10% for the day.

GBP/USD holds steady above mid-1.3300s as traders await key data and BoE this week

GBP/USD holds steady above mid-1.3300s as traders await key data and BoE this week

The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive during the Asian session on Monday, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the 200-day Simple Moving Average pivotal support. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3360 region, nearly unchanged for the day.

Gold retains bullish bias ahead of this week’s key US macro releases

Gold retains bullish bias ahead of this week’s key US macro releases

Gold attracts buyers for the fifth straight day and climbs to the $4,330 region during the Asian session on Monday. The commodity remains well within striking distance of its highest level since October 21, touched on Friday, and seems poised to appreciate further amid a supportive fundamental backdrop. 

Solana consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying

Solana consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying

Solana price hovers above $131 at the time of writing on Monday, nearing the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, awaiting a decisive breakout. On the institutional side, demand for spot Solana Exchange-Traded Funds remained firm, pushing total assets under management to nearly $1 billion since launch. 

Big week ends with big doubts

Big week ends with big doubts

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

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