Dave Floyd
Aspen Trading Group
OK traders, no need to make it complicated.
If the Dollar Index (DXC) is weak, we know that pairs like EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD will be strong while pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CHF should be weak. Simple correlation here – remember college statistics?
That is not enough though, we want to know which pairs are performing better or worse than the Dollar Index (DXC) as those will likely be the best pairs to trade.
So, if we simply look at the most recent leg lower in DXC (March 11th high), we can make the assumption that the pairs which outperformed would be the ones to track going forward.
DXC is off about .62% during this time, but NZD/USD is up 1.25% (long) while USD/CHF and USD/JPY are off .80% (short).
Conclusion: only focus on NZD/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF. By doing this you have turned all the other noise off and know to focus 110% on set-ups in those pairs. Now you have freed up your time and eliminated the other perceived possibilities and tail chasing. That is the critical difference between those that succeed and those that merely take part!
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends decline toward 1.0500 after US data
EUR/USD came under renewed bearish pressure and declined toward 1.0500 in the second half of the day on Monday. After the data from the US showed that the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected in September, the US Dollar extended its rally and weighed on the pair.
GBP/USD falls below 1.2150 as USD rally continues
GBP/USD turned south and retreated to a fresh daily low below 1.2150 in the American session. The US Dollar continued to gather strength against its rivals after the better-than-expected ISM September Manufacturing PMI data and forced the pair to stay on the back foot.
USD/JPY hits fresh 11-month highs, approaches key 150.00 level
USD/JPY is extending gains toward 150.00, flirting with fresh 11-month highs in Asian trading on Monday. The pair is supported by the renewed upswing in the US Treasury bond yields and dovish BoJ commentary. However, Japanese FX intervention risks mount.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends decline toward 1.0500 after US data
EUR/USD came under renewed bearish pressure and declined toward 1.0500 in the second half of the day on Monday. After the data from the US showed that the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected in September, the US Dollar extended its rally and weighed on the pair.
GBP/USD falls below 1.2150 as USD rally continues
GBP/USD turned south and retreated to a fresh daily low below 1.2150 in the American session. The US Dollar continued to gather strength against its rivals after the better-than-expected ISM September Manufacturing PMI data and forced the pair to stay on the back foot.
Gold falls to fresh multi-month lows below $1,830
Gold price turned south and dropped to its weakest level since early March below $1,830. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield gained traction on upbeat US PMI data and was last seen rising nearly 2% on the day above 4.6%, causing XAU/USD to stretch lower.
Week ahead: Fed speech and NFP likely to dictate crypto market moves this week
With the start of 2023’s fourth quarter, things are finally getting interesting in crypto. While the next 12 weeks are extremely important, let’s start by focusing on what to expect this week.
NIO contracts 2% as Tesla delivery decline weighs on EV sector
Nio (NIO) stock dropped 2.3% on Monday morning despite meeting its quarterly delivery target for the third quarter. Tesla's (TSLA) Q3 production and delivery decline is the culprit.
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