Dave Floyd
Aspen Trading Group
OK traders, no need to make it complicated.
If the Dollar Index (DXC) is weak, we know that pairs like EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD will be strong while pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CHF should be weak. Simple correlation here – remember college statistics?
That is not enough though, we want to know which pairs are performing better or worse than the Dollar Index (DXC) as those will likely be the best pairs to trade.
So, if we simply look at the most recent leg lower in DXC (March 11th high), we can make the assumption that the pairs which outperformed would be the ones to track going forward.
DXC is off about .62% during this time, but NZD/USD is up 1.25% (long) while USD/CHF and USD/JPY are off .80% (short).
Conclusion: only focus on NZD/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF. By doing this you have turned all the other noise off and know to focus 110% on set-ups in those pairs. Now you have freed up your time and eliminated the other perceived possibilities and tail chasing. That is the critical difference between those that succeed and those that merely take part!
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops to daily lows near 1.1630
EUR/USD now loses some traction and slips back to the area of daily lows around 1.1630 on the back of a mild bounce in the US Dollar. Fresh US data, including the September PCE inflation numbers and the latest read on December consumer sentiment, didn’t really move the needle, so the pair is still on course to finish the week with a respectable gain.
GBP/USD trims gains, recedes toward 1.3320
GBP/USD is struggling to keep its daily advance, coming under fresh pressure and retreating to the 1.3320 zone following a mild bullish attempt in the Greenback. Even though US consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, the US Dollar isn’t getting much love, as traders are far more interested in what the Fed will say next week.
Japanese Yen refreshes three-week high vs USD; seems poised to appreciate further
The Japanese Yen retains bullish bias as BoJ rate hike bets offset dismal Household Spending data. Dovish Fed expectations fail to assist the USD in attracting buyers and keep a lid on the USD/JPY pair. Traders keenly await the US PCE Price Index for Fed rate-cut cues and a fresh directional impetus.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops to daily lows near 1.1630
EUR/USD now loses some traction and slips back to the area of daily lows around 1.1630 on the back of a mild bounce in the US Dollar. Fresh US data, including the September PCE inflation numbers and the latest read on December consumer sentiment, didn’t really move the needle, so the pair is still on course to finish the week with a respectable gain.
GBP/USD trims gains, recedes toward 1.3320
GBP/USD is struggling to keep its daily advance, coming under fresh pressure and retreating to the 1.3320 zone following a mild bullish attempt in the Greenback. Even though US consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, the US Dollar isn’t getting much love, as traders are far more interested in what the Fed will say next week.
Gold makes a U-turn, back to $4,200
Gold is now losing the grip and receding to the key $4,200 region per troy ounce following some signs of life in the Greenback and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the board. The positive outlook for the precious metal, however, remains underpinned by steady bets for extra easing by the Fed.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP pare gains despite increasing hopes of upcoming Fed rate cut
Bitcoin is steadying above $91,000 at the time of writing on Friday. Ethereum remains above $3,100, reflecting positive sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting on December 10.
Week ahead – Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides
Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low.
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