Dave Floyd
Aspen Trading Group
OK traders, no need to make it complicated.
If the Dollar Index (DXC) is weak, we know that pairs like EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD will be strong while pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CHF should be weak. Simple correlation here – remember college statistics?
That is not enough though, we want to know which pairs are performing better or worse than the Dollar Index (DXC) as those will likely be the best pairs to trade.
So, if we simply look at the most recent leg lower in DXC (March 11th high), we can make the assumption that the pairs which outperformed would be the ones to track going forward.
DXC is off about .62% during this time, but NZD/USD is up 1.25% (long) while USD/CHF and USD/JPY are off .80% (short).
Conclusion: only focus on NZD/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF. By doing this you have turned all the other noise off and know to focus 110% on set-ups in those pairs. Now you have freed up your time and eliminated the other perceived possibilities and tail chasing. That is the critical difference between those that succeed and those that merely take part!
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.0850 after US data
EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to hold its ground after PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves
GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.
USD/JPY hovers near 154.00, reverses Tokyo CPI-led slide
USD/JPY is consolidating its rebound near 154.00, having reversed the Tokyo CPI data-led slide to 153.40. The pair stays volatile, as the BoJ-Fed policy divergence remains in play while markets reposition ahead of the top-tier US PCE inflation data due later on Friday.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.0850 after US data
EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to hold its ground after PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves
GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.
Gold rebounds above $2,380 as US yields stretch lower
Following a quiet European session, Gold gathers bullish momentum and trades decisively higher on the day above $2,380. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield loses more than 1% on the day after US PCE inflation data, fuelling XAU/USD's upside.
Avalanche price sets for a rally following retest of key support level
Avalanche (AVAX) price bounced off the $26.34 support level to trade at $27.95 as of Friday. Growing on-chain development activity indicates a potential bullish move in the coming days.
The election, Trump's Dollar policy, and the future of the Yen
After an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and drop out of President Biden, Kamala Harris has been endorsed as the Democratic candidate to compete against Trump in the upcoming November US presidential election.
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