Dave Floyd
Aspen Trading Group
OK traders, no need to make it complicated.
If the Dollar Index (DXC) is weak, we know that pairs like EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD will be strong while pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CHF should be weak. Simple correlation here – remember college statistics?
That is not enough though, we want to know which pairs are performing better or worse than the Dollar Index (DXC) as those will likely be the best pairs to trade.
So, if we simply look at the most recent leg lower in DXC (March 11th high), we can make the assumption that the pairs which outperformed would be the ones to track going forward.
DXC is off about .62% during this time, but NZD/USD is up 1.25% (long) while USD/CHF and USD/JPY are off .80% (short).
Conclusion: only focus on NZD/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF. By doing this you have turned all the other noise off and know to focus 110% on set-ups in those pairs. Now you have freed up your time and eliminated the other perceived possibilities and tail chasing. That is the critical difference between those that succeed and those that merely take part!
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820
EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.
GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above
GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.
USD/JPY drops back below 157.00, as focus shifts to Japan snap election
USD/JPY is back in the red below 157.00 in the Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen recovers ground against the US Dollar amid some profit-taking ahead of Japan's snap general election on Sunday. The preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report for February will be released later on Friday.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates Premium
The EUR/USD pair lost additional ground in the first week of February, settling at around 1.1820. The reversal lost momentum after the pair peaked at 1.2082 in January, its highest since mid-2021.
Gold: Volatility persists in commodity space Premium
After losing more than 8% to end the previous week, Gold (XAU/USD) remained under heavy selling pressure on Monday and dropped toward $4,400. Although XAU/USD staged a decisive rebound afterward, it failed to stabilize above $5,000.
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling tests key support ahead of a big week Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) changed course against the US Dollar (USD), with GBP/USD giving up nearly 200 pips in a dramatic correction.
Bitcoin: The worst may be behind us
Bitcoin (BTC) price recovers slightly, trading at $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, after reaching a low of $60,000 during the early Asian trading session. The Crypto King remained under pressure so far this week, posting three consecutive weeks of losses exceeding 30%.
Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election Premium
The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.
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