Consider the old adage permeating the forex market that a trader must maintain a ratio of two dollars in potential profit for every dollar that is risked on a transaction.
Is it true? Does a 2:1 profit/loss ratio matter?
The first thing to recognize is that a successful trader is measured by profitability, not maintaining an industry-expected risk reward. Trading manuals and Forex gurus have long trumpeted the 2:1 risk reward ratio as a guidepost for traders. Traders in turn march dutifully to the mantra of 2:1 risk reward ratio.
Let's look at some examples in the forex market to test the traditional wisdom.
Trader A has a taste for risk in her trading style and accepts a healthy $400 average loss. But she is making an average of $800 on her winning trades - an "admired" 2:1 risk reward. But her winning percentage is only 30%. For every 10 trades she thus loses an average of $40, despite her 2:1 risk reward that is widely advocated.
Trader B, on the other hand, makes an average of only $175 on her winning currency trades but still endures a $400 average loss - a frowned-upon risk reward on 1:2.29. Yet she makes a gain on 70% of her trades. For every ten trades she makes she realizes a profit of $25.
What is at work here is not the risk reward ratio that is determining profitability but the risk reward ratio operating in tandem with winning percentage. It is the expected win percentage AND the fundamentals of the risk reward ratio that must be continually evaluated.
When playing the forex market traders must determine the style of trader they are, not blindly pursue industry-recommended ratios. Once a calculation is derived to tag your win percentage as a trader, then you can figure what risk reward ratio is needed at a minimum to make a trade pay off.
Traders with lower win rates must make sure their trades average larger risk rewards to deliver bottom line profitability. Others who are not willing to take large hits for a big score will push their trading activities towards a higher win rate and smaller risk reward ratios.
Too often trades are labeled a good play if they present rewards two and three times the money risked. But what if the trade has a success rate of only 10%? Who is going to make that "good" trade now? On the other hand if your research shows a statistical edge that provides a 90% win probability what will it matter if you are trading with a 2:1 risk reward or a 1:5 risk reward? Trading in the forex market can't be executed in knee-jerk fashion based on accepted ratios born in an informational vacuum.
There are many roads to success in the forex market but one road is pitted with more potholes than the rest - following traditional wisdom.
Is it true? Does a 2:1 profit/loss ratio matter?
The first thing to recognize is that a successful trader is measured by profitability, not maintaining an industry-expected risk reward. Trading manuals and Forex gurus have long trumpeted the 2:1 risk reward ratio as a guidepost for traders. Traders in turn march dutifully to the mantra of 2:1 risk reward ratio.
Let's look at some examples in the forex market to test the traditional wisdom.
Trader A has a taste for risk in her trading style and accepts a healthy $400 average loss. But she is making an average of $800 on her winning trades - an "admired" 2:1 risk reward. But her winning percentage is only 30%. For every 10 trades she thus loses an average of $40, despite her 2:1 risk reward that is widely advocated.
Trader B, on the other hand, makes an average of only $175 on her winning currency trades but still endures a $400 average loss - a frowned-upon risk reward on 1:2.29. Yet she makes a gain on 70% of her trades. For every ten trades she makes she realizes a profit of $25.
What is at work here is not the risk reward ratio that is determining profitability but the risk reward ratio operating in tandem with winning percentage. It is the expected win percentage AND the fundamentals of the risk reward ratio that must be continually evaluated.
When playing the forex market traders must determine the style of trader they are, not blindly pursue industry-recommended ratios. Once a calculation is derived to tag your win percentage as a trader, then you can figure what risk reward ratio is needed at a minimum to make a trade pay off.
Traders with lower win rates must make sure their trades average larger risk rewards to deliver bottom line profitability. Others who are not willing to take large hits for a big score will push their trading activities towards a higher win rate and smaller risk reward ratios.
Too often trades are labeled a good play if they present rewards two and three times the money risked. But what if the trade has a success rate of only 10%? Who is going to make that "good" trade now? On the other hand if your research shows a statistical edge that provides a 90% win probability what will it matter if you are trading with a 2:1 risk reward or a 1:5 risk reward? Trading in the forex market can't be executed in knee-jerk fashion based on accepted ratios born in an informational vacuum.
There are many roads to success in the forex market but one road is pitted with more potholes than the rest - following traditional wisdom.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD eases toward 1.1700 as USD finds fresh demand
EUR/USD eases toward the 1.1700 mark in Europe trading on Friday. The pair faces headwinds from a renewed uptick in the US Dollar as investors look past softer US inflation data. However, the EUR/USD downside appears capped by expectations of the Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence.
GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders digest BoE policy update and US inflation data
The GBP/USD pair stalls the previous day's pullback from the vicinity of mid-1.3400s and a nearly two-month high, though it struggles to attract meaningful buyers during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3380-1.3385 region, up only 0.05% for the day, amid mixed cues.
USD/JPY extends gains toward 157.00 after BoJ Ueda's comments
USD/JPY rises further toward the 157.00 level in the European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen remains under intense selling pressure as BoJ Governor Ueda sounded cautious on future rate hikes, while the US Dollar clings to recovery gains, allowing the pair to hold its ground.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD eases toward 1.1700 as USD finds fresh demand
EUR/USD eases toward the 1.1700 mark in Europe trading on Friday. The pair faces headwinds from a renewed uptick in the US Dollar as investors look past softer US inflation data. However, the EUR/USD downside appears capped by expectations of the Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence.
USD/JPY extends gains toward 157.00 after BoJ Ueda's comments
USD/JPY rises further toward the 157.00 level in the European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen remains under intense selling pressure as BoJ Governor Ueda sounded cautious on future rate hikes, while the US Dollar clings to recovery gains, allowing the pair to hold its ground.
Gold stays weak below $4,350 as USD bulls shrug off softer US CPI
Gold holds the previous day's late pullback from the vicinity of the record high and stays in the red below $4,350 in the European session on Friday. The US CPI report released on Thursday pointed to cooling inflationary pressures, but the US Dollar seems resilient amid a fresh bout of short-covering.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple correction slide as BoJ rate decision weighs on sentiment
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are extending their correction phases after losing nearly 3%, 8%, and 10%, respectively, through Friday. The pullback phase is further strengthened as the upcoming Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Friday weighs on risk sentiment, with BTC breaking key support, ETH deepening weekly losses, and XRP sliding to multi-month lows.
Bank of England cuts rates in heavily divided decision
The Bank of England has cut rates to 3.75%, but the decision was more hawkish than expected, leaving market rates higher and sterling slightly stronger. It's a close call whether the Bank cuts again in February or March.
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