Rick Wright
Online Trading Academy
Hello traders! In last week's Lessons From the Pros newsletter, we discussed how learning to trade is like learning to drive a car - Learning to Trade is Like Learning to Drive. This week we will continue the driving theme while we look at charts to help us determine high probability/low risk trades.
When you pull up to an intersection, very often we have a couple of choices to make be it to turn left, right, or go straight. In trading, our choices are buy, sell or wait. In the following EURUSD chart, we have an intersection of a previous demand/supply zone and a pair of trendlines. When we come to this intersection, what is the higher probability trade, long or short?
While we are in this yellow shaded supply and demand zone near the intersection of the two trendlines, we have a choice to make. Go left or right? Long or short? Or should we wait? When I teach one of our Online Trading Academy classes, this question comes up every trading day. If your answer to the buy sell or wait question is "wait," you have to ask yourself the next question. "Wait for what?" In this example, we are waiting to see which trendline is going to win at this intersection/decision point in our trading road. The general rule of thumb is that the trendline that has been valid the longest is the trendline that will win. Looking to the left on our supply demand zone area, there isn't a very compelling or high quality level we would have drawn here. Using the two trendlines and the intersection of all three can give us a trade. In this case, selling in the minor supply zone because of the longer term downward sloping trendline (#1) would have been the proper trade.
In the following EURUSD chart, we only have an intersection of a trendline and a supply demand zone. As the price action falls quickly into the yellow demand zone near the red arrow, there isn't really a clear downward trendline that we can draw into that zone.
However, the longer term upward sloping trendline is very obvious. Coming into this intersection, we only have two choices, buy or wait. (You could make the case for planning a short trade, but not until the yellow demand zone had been broken or even broken and then re-tested.) Why on earth would you sell IN the yellow demand zone? No reason at this intersection. If price drops through the demand zone, there would be a potential sell. But at this time, the better choice is to hit the buy button. If your answer to the question buy, sell or wait was to wait, what on earth are you waiting for? A traffic cop to point at you and tell you to go? I hope you don't need that!
Let's explore this topic a bit more. Leaving our driving analogies for a moment, what kind of trades are these - reversal or trend – following? Most people will answer trend - following. Guess what? Every trade is BOTH. On these two charts they are obvious trend followers, but when you zoom in on a smaller time frame –for example a 10 minute chart-you will notice very often a reversal trade.
What are we looking for in a reversal trade? Usually, some type of reversal pattern like a double top/bottom, head and shoulders, etc. The plan of action is then to do the following: In a larger time frame chart, look for an intersection of a trendline (or two!) and a supply demand zone. Look for a smaller time frame reversal pattern in the intersection. This should give you the direction to trade with a higher probability of being right.
Practice this technique like you practiced driving, and make sure you look both ways before turning!
This content is intended to provide educational information only. This information should not be construed as individual or customized legal, tax, financial or investment services. As each individual's situation is unique, a qualified professional should be consulted before making legal, tax, financial and investment decisions. The educational information provided in this article does not comprise any course or a part of any course that may be used as an educational credit for any certification purpose and will not prepare any User to be accredited for any licenses in any industry and will not prepare any User to get a job. Reproduced by permission from OTAcademy.com click here for Terms of Use: https://www.otacademy.com/about/terms
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD softens below 1.1750 amid ECB rate hold expectations
The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.1730 during the early European session on Wednesday, pressured by renewed US Dollar demand. Nonetheless, the potential downside for the major pair might be limited amid the growing acceptance that the European Central Bank is done cutting interest rates.
When is the UK CPI inflation data and how could it affect GBP/USD?
The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics will publish the highly relevant Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT. GBP/USD is likely to stay subdued if UK CPI meets expectations. However, any upside surprise could cap losses by tempering dovish sentiment ahead of the Bank of England’s policy decision on Thursday.
Japanese Yen weakens ahead of BoJ meeting; USD/JPY retakes 155.00 amid USD uptick
The Japanese Yen extends its steady intraday descent against the recovering US Dollar, pushing the USD/JPY pair back above the 155.00 psychological mark during the Asian session. Any further JPY depreciation still seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Friday.
Editors’ Picks
When is the UK CPI inflation data and how could it affect GBP/USD?
The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics will publish the highly relevant Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT. GBP/USD is likely to stay subdued if UK CPI meets expectations. However, any upside surprise could cap losses by tempering dovish sentiment ahead of the Bank of England’s policy decision on Thursday.
EUR/USD softens below 1.1750 amid ECB rate hold expectations
The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.1730 during the early European session on Wednesday, pressured by renewed US Dollar demand. Nonetheless, the potential downside for the major pair might be limited amid the growing acceptance that the European Central Bank is done cutting interest rates.
Gold: Bulls await breakout through multi-day-old range amid Fed rate cut bets
Gold attracts fresh buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined in a multi-day-old trading range amid mixed fundamental cues. The global risk sentiment remains on the defensive amid economic woes and fears of the AI bubble burst. Moreover, dovish US Federal Reserve expectations lend support to the non-yielding yellow metal, though a modest US Dollar uptick might cap any further appreciating move.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple extend correction as bearish momentum builds
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple remain under pressure as the broader market continues its corrective phase into midweek. The weak price action of these top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization suggests a deeper correction, as momentum indicators are beginning to tilt bearish.
Ukraine-Russia in the spotlight once again
Since the start of the week, gold’s price has moved lower, but has yet to erase the gains made last week. In today’s report we intend to focus on the newest round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, whilst noting the release of the US Employment data later on day and end our report with an update in regards to the tensions brewing in Venezuela.
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