USD/JPY Forecast and News
USD/JPY remains sideways below 162.00 despite Japan intervention fears
The USD/JPY pair trades in a tight range around 161.80 during the European trading session. The pair struggles for a direction while market experts remain confident of Tokyo’s intervention to support the Japanese Yen. Officials from Japan have warned several times that the ministry remains vigilant to one-sided excessive moves against the domestic currency.
Latest Japanese Yen News
USD/JPY Technical Overview
USD/JPY trades flat at around 161.80, extending its advance well above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 160.85, which reinforces a bullish near-term bias while that floor holds.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71.61 is in overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is strong but increasingly vulnerable to a corrective pause rather than a fresh acceleration.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA around 160.85, where a pullback could find buyers on the first test. A sustained break below this moving average would weaken the constructive tone and open the door to a deeper retracement. Looking up, the pair needs to break decisively above 162.00 for further downside towards 163.00 and 164.00.
Fundamental Overview
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades marginally lower, with investors shifting focus to the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be released on Thursday. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.16% lower to near 101.20.
Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year are almost 90%.
Before the US NFP data, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP Employment data for June and the JOLTS Job Openings data for May.
Latest JPY Analysis
Editors' picks
AUD/USD remains offered below 0.6900
AUD/USD clinches its second consecutive daily pullback, navigating the area below the 0.6900 support level ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The extra weakness in spot comes despite further selling pressure on the Greenback, as investors continue to evaluate the likelihood of a less hawkish RBA down the road, all ahead of the release of the bank’s Minutes early on Tuesday.
EUR/USD picks up extra pace north of 1.1400
EUR/USD extends its recovery past 1.1400 the figure as the NA session draws to a close on Monday. Indeed, the pair advances for the third straight day amid the persistent offered bias in the US Dollar. Meanwhile, market participants keep gearing up for the ECB Forum in Sintra and the release of critical US labour market data.
Gold struggles to attract investors
Gold remains under marked selling pressure, holding on just above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the beginning of the week. The precious metal reverses two daily advances in a row as renewed effervescence in the Middle East revive inflation concerns and bolster Fed rate hike expectations.
Strategy unveils plan allowing Bitcoin sales to fund stock buybacks, dividends and reserves
Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?
When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
Influential Institutions & People for the USD/JPY
The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and Facebook
The Bank of Japan (BOJ)
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the central bank of Japan. Established under the Bank of
Japan Act in 1882, it is a juridical entity and neither a government agency nor a private corporation. The BoJ
sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary
control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
Policy Board: The Policy Board is the bank's highest decision-making body. It determines the
guidelines
for currency and monetary control, sets the basic principles for carrying out the bank's operations and oversees
the performance of the bank's officers, excluding auditors and counselors.
History: The Bank of Japan was established under the Bank of Japan Act, promulgated in June
1882, and began operating as the nation's central bank on October 10, 1882. It was reorganized in 1942 under the
Bank of Japan Act of 1942,
which reflected the wartime context. The Act of 1942 was amended several times after World War II, and the
establishment of the Policy Board as the bank's highest decision-making body occurred in June 1949. In June
1997, the Act of 1942 was revised completely under the principles of independence and transparency. The revised
Act came into effect on April 1, 1998.
The official website , on X and YouTube
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.
Kazuo Ueda
Kazuo Ueda was born in Makinohara, Japan, on September 20, 1951. He is the 32nd and current Governor of the BoJ. He graduated from the University of Tokyo with a Bachelor of Science and Mathematics and received a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
He is a professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo and also worked as a professor at Kyoritsu Women's University. In February 2023, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida nominated Ueda as the governor of the BoJ. He is widely regarded as an expert on monetary policy but was considered a surprise appointment by analysts. He wasn’t even considered a dark-horse candidate, as the BoJ governor role has traditionally gone to long-serving Finance Ministry bureaucrats or central bank officials. Ueda is the first academic economist to lead the BoJ in the post-World War II era.
BOJ NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.