With Bitcoin miners bracing for effect of fourth halving, here's what to expect

Bitcoin (BTC) miners are gearing up for the fourth BTC halving event, less than four days away. With the halving set to slash mining rewards by 50%, the stock price of several mining companies has declined, and the entire crypto market may face much more decline as these companies could dump their BTC stash in the market.

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Miners prepare for Bitcoin's fourth halving

Bitcoin halving is an event that sees the mining rewards of validating blocks in the Bitcoin blockchain being slashed by 50%. The fourth cycle of the halving event, which occurs after every 210,000 BTC blocks are added to the Bitcoin blockchain — roughly every four years — is less than four days away. The general sentiment around Bitcoin halving is that prices would increase as its issuance race declines, making Bitcoin deflationary and increasingly scarce over time.

As the larger market is bracing for a potential price rally in the coming months, miners are facing the headache of seeing declining rewards while running with the same or even higher operational costs. During previous halving events, most miners had to close shop as they couldn't maintain operating with reduced revenue.

Although a potential price increase is expected to offset the reduction in mining rewards, Bitcoin's historical price data shows prices usually stagnate three to four months post-halving before picking up again. This may cause these miners to experience huge losses within the time frame.

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As a result, investors are shorting the stocks of several mining companies. According to data from S3 Partners LLC, the total short interest in fifteen Bitcoin mining companies reached almost $2 billion on April 8. The companies include Marathon, CleanSpark, Cipher, Hive and Bit Digital.

Top miners' expansion moves may see them dump BTC in the market

However, according to Bernstein and Glassnode data, miners have enjoyed a significant boost in revenue as Bitcoin reached an all-time high in March. This is the first time Bitcoin has reached an all-time high pre-halving, and it may serve as a "solid cushion" to the expected short-term declining revenues. However, small mining operations may suffer regardless.

Bernstein noted the possibility of mergers or buyouts based on insights from an interview with the CEOs of five top mining companies - Marathon, CleanSpark, Riot, Hut 8 and Cipher Mining. Some of these mining firms are expanding operations and could double their computing power by the year's end, causing them to earn almost the same amount of BTC as before the halving.

However, the funds fueling this expansion may have come from these miners selling their BTC holdings at recent highs, hence the recent market crash. Markus Thielen of 10x Research calculated that Bitcoin miners could dump $5 billion worth of BTC. He also stated, "The overhang from this selling could last four to six months, explaining why Bitcoin might go sideways for the next few months — as it has done following past halvings." And considering Bitcoin's high correlation with the entire crypto market, altcoins may suffer more from the impact of such sales, said Thielen.

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Other community members expect miners to focus on more renewable sources after the halving as they are cheaper. This may mean a possible migration to locations where renewable energy sources are easier to access. As a result, Bitcoin's carbon footprint may decline further.

Bitcoin is trading at $63,049 on Tuesday, with the halving set to occur around April 19 or 20.