|

Solana price action and on-chain metrics show signs of weakness

  • Solana’s price faces rejection around the previously broken ascending trendline, suggesting a downward trend.
  • On-chain data add credentials to a bearish outlook on SOL’s long-to-short is below one, decreasing development activity.
  • A daily candle stick close above $141.43 would invalidate the bearish thesis.

Solana (SOL) hints at a downward trend as it trades around $132 on Tuesday, following a rejection from the previously broken ascending trendline at $139.80 last week. The bearish outlook is further supported by declining development activity and a long-to-short ratio below one.

Solana price shows signs of weakness

Solana retested but was rejected from the previously broken ascending trendline around $139.80 (drawn by connecting multiple low levels from the end of January) on Friday. It declined 5.3% in the next two days. At the time of writing on Tuesday, it trades at $131.91.

If this trendline and the 50-day EMA at $141.43 continue to hold as resistance, SOL could extend the decline by 9% to its daily support of around $120.91.

This bearish thesis is further supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) on the daily chart, which trade below their neutral levels of 50 and zero, respectively. Both momentum indicators suggest that the bears are gaining momentum and indicating a downward trend.

SOL/USDT daily chart

SOL/USDT daily chart

Coinglass data further supports Solana’s bearish outlook. SOL’s long-to-short ratio is at 0.88 and has fallen below one since Friday. This means more traders are betting on the asset’s price to fall. 

SOL long-to-short ratio chart

SOL long-to-short ratio chart

Moreover, Santiment’s Development Activity Index aligns with the bearish picture. This metric shows project development activity over time based on several pure development-related events in the project’s public GitHub repository. 

In SOL’s case, the index sharply falls from 176.95 on Sunday to 166 on Tuesday. This trend has been falling since early September. This suggests that the low level of development activity on Solana reflects waning confidence in its blockchain projects, which, in turn, undermines investor trust and reinforces the negative market sentiment.

SOL Development Activity chart

SOL Development Activity chart

Despite the bearish outlook suggested by the technical analysis and on-chain metrics, If Solana’s daily candlestick closes above $141.43, its 50-day EMA would invalidate the bearish thesis by forming a higher high on the daily time frame. Such a development would raise SOL price by 5% to restest its August 28 high of $149.30

Author

Manish Chhetri

Manish Chhetri is a crypto specialist with over four years of experience in the cryptocurrency industry.

More from Manish Chhetri
Share:

Editor's Picks

XRP approaches key support as risk-off sentiment deepens
Ripple (XRP) is trading at $1.06 on Monday, maintaining its position within a broader bearish trend. The token’s technical outlook continues to deteriorate, pressured by declining retail participation. Appetite for risk assets remains lethargic, as reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, which is embedded in the Fear territory at 28.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP extend decline amid renewed risk-averse sentiment
The cryptocurrency market remains weak on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling toward the nearest $62,000. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) reflect the sell-off across altcoins, edging lower toward $1,800 and $1.05, respectively. Risk appetite remains subdued, as the Fear & Greed Index holds steady at 28, deep within Fear territory.
The Bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes
Once a goldmine for carry traders, Bitcoin futures have flipped, consistently underperforming plain‑vanilla U.S. Treasuries every month since February. Carry trades consistently yielded 20% or more across regulated and unregulated crypto exchanges during the 2021 bull market. The strategy involved shorting Bitcoin futures while simultaneously buying a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).
The crypto market is moving in the opposite direction to equities
The crypto market’s market capitalisation has fallen by 1% over the past 24 hours, returning to levels last seen in mid-July. The positive momentum the market showed in the first half of last week failed to take hold. Once again, we are seeing a negative correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index, this time in the form of falling cryptocurrencies while shares rise. Could this be becoming the new norm?
Bitcoin: Bulls hold the line
Bitcoin (BTC) edges slightly lower, trading at $64,300 at the time of writing on Friday but holding firmly above a key support zone. US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) support BTC as they continued to attract institutional flows through Thursday, pointing to the fourth consecutive week of net inflows.