Solana likely to extend gains as DeFi airdrop season could boost user base

Solana ecosystem is set to experience a surge in activity from decentralized finance (DeFi) projects that offer users airdrops in the following months, according to a report from crypto market intelligence company Messari. A higher user base – together with the gradual increase in weekly active addresses on the layer 1 blockchain – benefits Solana (SOL) token’s valuation, which has risen nearly 4% over the last day and a whopping 59.20% in the last month. 

At the time of writing, SOL price is $61.14 on Binance. 

Rising activity in Solana could fuel SOL gains

Solana ecosystem is likely to experience a surge in activity in the upcoming airdrop season, when projects like Jupiter, Marginfi, Drift, Zeta and Jito will proceed with  airdrops for qualified users.

According to Messari’s latest research report on Solana, market participants can expect an increase in liquidity and user engagement in response to these DeFi airdrops in the ecosystem. 

Typically, network activity trends downwards after the completion of a successful ecosystem airdrop. However, SOL differs from this trend as it is already an established network token, the report said. 

Messari expects a consistent increase in the Total Value of Assets Locked (TVL) in the Solana ecosystem amid consistent DeFi activity.

Airdrop participants, long-term contributors and other users could add to the organic DeFi activity in the Solana network, fueling a bullish thesis for the asset and driving SOL price higher.

The report projects an increase of between 30% and 80% in Solana users from native token launches. The projected increase in daily users is an average of 160,000. The projection puts Solana nearly at par with daily users on the Polygon blockchain, as seen in the chart below.

SOL users may increase. Source: Messari 

Key highlights of the report include a massive rebound in Solana’s TVL. The recovery in the total value of assets locked is significant when compared to the FTX collapse in November 2022. Solana’s TVL stood at $2.5 billion in November 27, up 405% since the FTX collapse.

Solana TVL change since the FTX exchange collapse. Source: Messari. 

Weekly active addresses on the chain – another key metric to assess activity – has reached in the last couple of months levels previously seen prior to the FTX exchange collapse in 2022. This is a sign of recovery in the Solana ecosystem. 

Solana weekly active addresses. Source: Messari

At the time of writing, SOL is trading at $61.14 on Binance, up nearly 9% in the past week and 4% on the daily timeframe. SOL price is likely to extend its gains on the back of upcoming airdrops and projected increase in activity.