Monero Price Analysis: XMR stares into the abyss as CipherTrace voes to de-anonymize the coin

Monero (XMR), the 16th largest digital asset with the current market capitalization of $2.2 billion, has gained nearly 9% in the past seven days. The coin bottomed at $120.5 on November 12 and hit the recovery high of $129.9 on November 22. At the time of writing, XMR/USD is changing hands at $125.7, mostly unchanged on a day-to-day basis. The coin is most actively traded on Binance and Huobi Global, while its average daily trading volume exceeds $1.4 billion.

CipherTrace hunts Monero

Blockchain analytics and intelligence company CipherTrace filed two patents for Monero tracing technology. According to the press release published by CipherTrace, the patented solutions will include two forensic tools that will allow tracing transactions on the Monero blockchain, retrieving the information about the wallet owners. The company's experts state that the new solution will help track stolen or illegally used coins.

CipherTrace's Monero tracing capabilities will allow [Virtual Asset Service Providers] to identify when inbound XMR may have criminal origins, allowing them to adequately risk rate customer transactions per any required regulations," the blog stated. "[Our] goal is to enable the detection of criminal users, therefore increasing the safety and sustainability of privacy coins like Monero in the future.

CipherTrace cooperates with the state authorities and creates software for tracing money-laundering and illegal activity. The tools developed by the company provide visual information that can be used as evidence in courts and other law enforcement authorities.

Banks and cryptocurrency exchanges are also among CipherTrace customers. They use the simplified version of the money tracing software to ensure compliance.  

While Bitcoin is still the most popular coin on Darknet, Monero is often used for hidden cryptocurrency mining, also known as cryptojacking. Apart from that, hackers want ransom to be paid in Monero to ensure the authorities do not track them.

CipherTrace claims that it has been developing on the software for two years. If it works as intended, Monero may lose its status of a privacy coin. While the efficiency of the tracing tools is yet to be proved, the market reacted to the news by selling XMR. The coin dropped to $112 on Sunday, November 22, before recovering to $125 by the time of writing.

The technical picture bodes ill for Monero bulls

The TD Sequential indicator presented a sell signal on XMR's daily chart, adding credence to the negative outlook. The bearish formation developed as a green nine candlestick. If the pattern is confirmed by a red two candlestick trading below a preceding red one candle, Monero will be poised for a one to four three-day candlesticks correction.

XMR/USD, daily chart

The first bearish target comes at $112. This barrier served as a support at the beginning of November; it is also reinforced by November 22 low. Once it is out of the way, the sell-off will likely gain traction with the next focus on the psychological $100 and $97.

On the upside,  a sustainable move above $130 will invalidate the immediate bearish scenario and allow for an extended recovery towards $143, the recent recovery high hit on October 27.