Crypto influencer makes controversial Bitcoin price crash prediction to $45,000


  • Bitcoin price rally to its new all-time high is largely driven by $7.35 billion institutional capital inflow to ETFs since its debut in the US. 
  • Crypto influencer Capo predicts Bitcoin price crash to $45,000.
  • Bitcoin halving is 42 days away, the event has typically ushered a bloodbath in BTC price ahead of the block reward halving.

Bitcoin price rally to $69,000 has seen few obstacles as inflows to Bitcoin ETFs hit $7.35 billion in 2024. According to a recent Bloomberg report, the institutional capital inflow to the exchange traded fund has driven the ongoing bull run. 

Typically, Bitcoin price nosedives in the days leading up to the halving event as seen in previous instances. A crypto expert, Capo, popular as a “perma bear,” someone who is permanently bearish on Bitcoin, predicted BTC price decline to $45,000, citing the Federal Reserve’s high interest rate. After BTC price rally to a new all-time high on Wednesday, the perma bear says the sentiment is bullish for now and once Bitcoin price dips below $60,000, it will mark the first bearish confirmation.

Also read: BTC/USD outlook: Bitcoin resumes rally after a mild consolidation, record high in focus

Bitcoin price rally largely driven by ETF inflows

A Bloomberg report on Monday highlighted how Bitcoin’s current rally is driven by institutional capital inflows. BTC price rally to its new all-time high above $69,000 was likely catalyzed by the expectation of exchange-traded funds’ demand among market participants. 

BTC price made it past the $65,000 level for the first time since November 2021. Analysts attribute Bitcoin’s price rally to the BTC demand from US-listed ETFs, which began trading with the SEC’s approval on January 11. 

Bitcoin price gained over 190% in the past 12 months and is up over 55% year to date. Bloomberg’s data shows that institutional investors have invested $7.35 billion since Spot ETF debut. 

While Bitcoin price appears to be in discovery mode on Monday, “perma bear” Capo, behind the X handle CryptoCapo_ predicted a BTC price decline to $45,000. 

Bearish thesis for Bitcoin price, drop to $45,000 likely?

Crypto expert and trader Capo is known for his bearish commentary on Bitcoin price. The influencer dropped a message on his Telegram group for traders, here he outlines how interest rates affect Bitcoin price and predicts a BTC price pullback to $45,000, owing to high interest rates. 

In his message, Capo explains that high interest rates for a long period of time are detrimental to the economy. In his words, Capo states, 

“Central banks intentionally maintain high interest rates in a phase known as QT (Quantitative Tightening), as a measure to slow down economic activity and control inflation. They achieve their goal, as inflation drops, but it has serious collateral effects, such as a possible recession.”

Capo notes that the UK and Japan have already announced they are in recession. As other countries confirm this, markets could return to their fair price, predicting a correction in Bitcoin and implying that $45,000 is a fair price for the asset. 

Capo

Capo’s Telegram message. Source: X

Capo’s prediction is in line with typical Bitcoin price trend in the weeks and months prior to the halving event. The scheduled BTC halving will occur in April 2024, therefore a correction in Bitcoin price is likely. Following Bitcoin price rally on Wednesday, Capo informed his followers that the sentiment among market participants is currently bullish. Once Bitcoin price declines below the key $60,000 level, it would mark the first bearish confirmation for his thesis. 

Capo

Capo's message. Source: Telegram

Bitcoin price correction trend prior to halving

Three previous Bitcoin halving events have seen a considerable decline in BTC price prior to the event and a surge in the asset’s price in the months and weeks following the mining reward halving. 

The chart below shows four year cycles for BTC halving and how the price dips before the event and BTC price typically hits a new all-time high after. 

BTC

Bitcoin halving events. Source: TradingView

If Bitcoin price trend repeats, there is a likelihood of a pullback. Further, analysts at JP Morgan lend credence to the bearish thesis with their prediction of BTC price decline to $42,000. In a report, analysts wrote, “...This $42,000 estimate is also the level we envisage Bitcoin prices drifting towards once Bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria subsides after April.”

It's important to note that the Spot Bitcoin ETF has changed the scenario typical of previous halvings. Consistent demand from institutional investors could drive prices higher consistently, unlike previous halving events. What’s more, the ongoing bull run is largely driven by institutional entities and retail traders are on the sidelines. This is atypical of previous halving cycles and this could influence the asset's price positively. To find out more about this, check this out. 


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Solana and XRP ETFs may be on the cards in 2025, Standard Chartered analyst says

Solana and XRP ETFs may be on the cards in 2025, Standard Chartered analyst says

Ethereum Exchange Traded Fund approval news has renewed optimism on Solana and XRP ETFs approval in 2025. Analysts at Standard Chartered believe more cryptocurrency ETFs may be approved next year, and these assets will not be classified as securities. 

More Solana News

Uniswap Price Forecast: UNI could be poised for 30% rally after month-long lull

Uniswap Price Forecast: UNI could be poised for 30% rally after month-long lull

Uniswap price has broken out of a 35-day consolidation this week, a sign of a possible rally ahead that could increase the token’s price around 30%. Technical indicators support the bullish thesis, while on-chain data also aligns with it.

More Uniswap News

Dogecoin inspiration Kabosu dies, leaving legacy of $22.86 billion market cap meme coin behind

Dogecoin inspiration Kabosu dies, leaving legacy of $22.86 billion market cap meme coin behind

Kabosu, the popular Shiba Inu dog that inspired the logo of the largest meme coin by market capitalization, Dogecoin, died early on Friday after losing her fight to leukemia and liver disease. Kabosu had gained popularity as the dog behind the viral “doge” meme. 

More Dogecoin News

XRP climbs past $0.53, SEC Chair Gensler says the agency has done very well in court cases

XRP climbs past $0.53, SEC Chair Gensler says the agency has done very well in court cases

Ripple lawsuit ruling is expected soon, following the new US crypto bill, FIT21. SEC Chair Gary Gensler says the agency has fared well in legal battles while speaking at the ICI 2024 Leadership Summit. 

More Ripple News

Bitcoin: BTC struggles, but $80K is at striking distance Premium

Bitcoin: BTC struggles, but $80K is at striking distance

Bitcoin (BTC) price is in a good position to resume the bull rally despite the recent struggle. Optimism will restart if BTC overcomes a critical hurdle and flips it into a foothold. In such a case, the pioneer crypto will be slated to push to a new all-time high (ATH). 

Read full analysis

BTC

ETH

XRP