• Cardano price has been on an uptrend since early March, but the 200-day EMA at $0.396 has limited the advance.
  • ADA must flip this obstacle into support to unlock more gains.
  • The bullish thesis will be invalidated if the altcoin drops below the 50-day EMA at $0.360.

Cardano price (ADA) was consolidating along an uptrend line until it met the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This trend-following indicator has capped gains for ADA, causing the altcoin to move horizontally since the beginning of the month.

Cardano price readies for a 30% up move

Cardano price has been trading with a bullish bias for over three weeks now, moving along an ascending trendline as ADA recorded higher highs and higher lows. Notably, as long as the altcoin’s bulls continue with this accumulation pattern, ADA price could record more gains for investors.

Nevertheless, the roadblock presented by the 200-day EMA at $0.396 has interrupted the rally, causing Cardano price to stagnate below, trading at $0.392 at the time of writing. If buying momentum increases, the altcoin could break above the 200-day EMA, opening the path for more gains. A decisive flip of this hurdle into support could solidify the uptrend.

A clear path above the $0.396 area could see Cardano price rise to tag the $0.427 resistance level, last tested in November before the implosion of cryptocurrency exchange FTX sent the crypto market to unprecedented lows.

In highly bullish cases, Cardano price could stretch the climb to the $0.50 level, denoting a nearly 30% gain from current levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also supports the bullish narrative for Cardano price. Its position above the mean line at 59 suggests a continuation of the uptrend as this was the direction offering the least resistance. Similarly, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) were soaked in green and moving in the positive region to show that bulls were leading the ADA market. 

ADA/USDT 1-day chart

Further supporting the bullish thesis, the Cardano network revealed in a Twitter post on April 3 that retail investors held 66% of the ADA supply.

According to the Cardano Feed, this points to a strong belief in the digital asset among community members and supports its growth potential. One of the most notable factors that draw retail investors to Cardano is its growing ecosystem of applications. This has seen the network surpass industry giants like Ethereum on metrics such as the number of unique wallets participating in staking.

Conversely, if Cardano price bows to the overhead pressure of the 200-day EMA, the altcoin could lose part of the ground covered in the recent rally. A drop toward the 50- and 100-day EMAs at $0.360 and $0.357 levels, respectively, could see ADA lose the support offered by the uptrend line. Such a move would invalidate the bullish thesis.

In dire cases, Cardano price could revisit the March lows around $0.336, followed by the $0.323 support levels, or even worse, tag the $0.296 support level last visited on March 10. This would constitute a 25% plunge from the current price. 


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