Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC uptrend capped by supply barrier at $43,860 as FOMO fails to suffice

Bitcoin (BTC) price uptrend has sustained since mid-September on the weekly timeframe but has since slowed down following the lack of tailwinds to drive the market. All along, narratives, themes and speculation were the driving factors, inspiring a wave of fear of missing out (FOMO) in the market. As it turns out, FOMO is not enough anymore.

Also Read: Bitcoin price scrapes $44K: Is $50K next as BTC crosses the midline of a weekly supply zone?

Bitcoin price stalls as FOMO fails to suffice

Bitcoin (BTC) price’s uptrend came as traders and investors rode speculation around three narratives. First, the perception exists that November and the fourth quarter (Q4) has historically been a good month for Bitcoin in terms of returns. Secondly, anticipation grew for spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETFs) approvals by the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), and finally the countdown for the BTC halving continues to close in.

With Q4 expectations seemingly already priced in, having delivered upwards of 65% in gains since October, all that is left is the spot BTC ETF and the halving. However, after a series of back and forth between the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and institutional players, including delays and amendments, the narrative has run out of steam with the market now looking to the hard deadline of between January 5 and 10 for bundled spot ETF approvals. Unless an approval comes sooner, or fundamentally bullish news arrives, January is the next time the ETF narrative could inspire volatility in crypto.

Fast forward to April 2024, when the BTC halving is expected, anticipation brews that it will kick-start the next bull run cycle.

The market has been front-running the three narratives, with special emphasis on the last two – ETFs and halving. The fear of missing out on the rally associated with these events drove the market entirely on speculation as none of them have happened so far. This was until Bitcoin price met the weekly supply barrier extending from $40,698 to $46,999.

According Santiment, traders are fearful that crypto markets may currently be in a bull trap, observing that capital is flowing away from BTC and into the altcoin market. This is evidenced by Ethereum price coaxing the altcoin category to blast off.

Meanwhile, as FOMO fades, it is imperative to note that, “Markets historically move in the direction of the crowd's least expectation,” according to Santiment, meaning prices certainly are capable of continuing to rise, but probabilities point to this not happening until the FOMO calms down.

Jamie Coutts, a popular blockchain analyst who reportedly built the crypto research product at Bloomberg, says Bitcoin price is venturing into the Belief / Denial zone where 25-30% pullbacks can start appearing regularly.

In his opinion,  every BTC holder will soon experience the compulsion to sell. However, he observes that on-chain metrics, such as illiquid supply and long-term holders, show that “this bull market started from a much higher base level of conviction than ever before.”

Another trader, Ash Crypto, believes “2024 is going to be massive for Bitcoin, speculating $100k+ for BTC, steered by key drivers.”

Nevertheless, this may not be realized until Bitcoin price overcomes the critical roadblock at $43,860.

Bitcoin price outlook as $43,860 proves impenetrable

Investors need to watch for a decisive candlestick close above the $43,860 mean threshold on the weekly timeframe to confirm the continuation of the trend. Key levels to watch once this resistance level has been flipped to a support floor include $54,763. In a highly bullish case, the $66,098 range high is possible.

In extremely ambitious cases, Bitcoin price could extend a neck higher to tag the $69,000 psychological level, standing 57% above current levels.

The Bollinger Bands indicator suggests Bitcoin price will continue to edge higher as the candle has broken out above the upper band of the Bollinger indicator at $41,881.

BTC/USDT 1-week chart

On the flip side, if the $43,860 levels holds as a resistance level, Bitcoin price could pull south, testing the centerline of the Bollinger Bands and at $31,144. In a more dire scenario, BTC could extend the losses below the $30,000 psychological level.