- Bitcoin price consolidation along an ascending trendline is likely exhausted as the $43,860 barrier refuses to break.
- BTC could crash 5% to test the $40,000 psychological level or extend the fall by 10% to the critical support at $37,800.
- A break and close above the $43,860 mean threshold would invalidate the bearish thesis, setting the tone for continuation.
Bitcoin (BTC) price lacks directional bias, consolidating under a multi-week barrier as the year approaches its close. With the retail market expected to take the back seat for the next two days, weekend volatility could see BTC make a final crash in 2023 before the rally expected in 2024 kicks off – propelled by the potential spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approval.
Also Read: Bitcoin ETF news and five most asked questions regarding spot ETF approval
Bitcoin price consolidation likely exhausted
Bitcoin price has consolidated along an ascending trendline since the first week of November, with the climb climaxing on December 4. This was when BTC forayed into the weekly supply zone extending between $40,387 and $46,999.
The critical barrier, and therefore the level to beat, is the midline (mean threshold) of the supply zone at $43,860. A candlestick close above it on the weekly timeframe would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
From a technical standpoint, however, Bitcoin price could give sidelined and late investors one last opportunity to buy BTC at the dip before a possible rush in 2024 inspired by the spot ETF frenzy.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears subdued even as BTC is already overbought, which is the recipe for a correction. With the RSI’s ongoing trajectory, if this momentum indicator crosses below the 70 level, confirming BTC is ripe for selling, the ensuing downward momentum could see Bitcoin price lose the support offered by the ascending trendline.
Further south, the slump could send BTC below the base of the weekly supply zone at $40,387. In the dire case, the slump could extend for Bitcoin price to slip below the $40,000 psychological level before testing the $37,800 range.
BTC/USDT 1-week chart
Bitcoin market is mostly bearish
An overview of on-chain aggregator IntoTheBlock shows that the Bitcoin market is mostly bearish despite 84% of BTC holders sitting on unrealized profit while only 11% are sitting on unrealized losses at current prices.
BTC IntoTheBlock Overview
The fear and greed index metric also shows that while the general sentiment is greed, the level of rapacity has been reducing steadily between last month and now, to the current value of 65.
BTC Fear and Greed Index
This metric points to caution in the market amid expectations of heightened volatility even as the spot BTC ETF approval calendar counts down.
Nevertheless, it is impossible to ignore the fact that the bulls still maintain a dominant presence in the BTC market. Evidence of this is the large volumes of green histogram bars of the Awesome Oscillator (AO) as well as those of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator in the positive territory. The MACD is also still moving above the signal line (orange band), showing the upside potential remains very much alive.
Increased buying pressure above current levels, therefore, could see Bitcoin price shatter past the $43,860 barrier, with the possibility of flipping the weekly supply zone into a bullish breaker by overcoming its upper boundary at $46,999 to test the $48,000 psychological level. Confirmation of a move north will happen once the price breaks and closes above the $43,860 barrier, invalidating the bearish thesis.
A breach of the $48,000 psychological barrier would clear the path for Bitcoin price to extend to the $50,000 or in highly ambitious cases, the $60,000 psychological level.
Read Bitcoin Price Annual Forecast: BTC readies for home run in 2024 with two bullish fundamentals on tap
Crypto ETF FAQs
What is an ETF?
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Is Bitcoin futures ETF approved?
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Is Bitcoin spot ETF approved?
Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved outside the US, but the SEC is yet to approve one in the country. After BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF on June 15, the interest surrounding crypto ETFs has been renewed. Grayscale – whose application for a Bitcoin spot ETF was initially rejected by the SEC – got a victory in court, forcing the US regulator to review its proposal again. The SEC’s loss in this lawsuit has fueled hopes that a Bitcoin spot ETF might be approved by the end of the year.
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