Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Assessing likelihood of 80% rally for BTC before 2023


Share:
  • Bitcoin price produced a higher high after 18 days of consolidation and could indicate the start of a bear market rally.
  • Historical seasonal patterns suggest a high chance BTC will rally in December, bringing the average return in 2022 close to 2021’s.
  • A breakdown of the $16,700 support level will be the first sign of trouble, but losing the $15,550 support level will invalidate the bullish outlook.

Bitcoin price action over the last 72 hours indicates that a massive bullish move is coming. In the last two articles, we have taken a look at why this is possible from a technical and on-chain perspective. 

In this weekly forecast, however, we will take a look at Bitcoin’s monthly performance for the last decade and determine if this bullish outlook is possible. 

Bitcoin price and its performance over the years

Bitcoin price performance depends on what phase of the cycle it is in. If it is in a bull run, monthly returns tend to be positive, but during bear markets, the average yield tends to decline. Currently, BTC is yet to produce a bottom.

As discussed in previous articles, the $15,550 low could be a bottom for the market, but it is impossible to know for sure. Judging from previous cycles and Bitcoin price action, a further decline actually seems likely. An ideal place for a macro bottom would be the range, extending from $31,575 to $11,898. Due to volatility, a retest of $10,000 could also be possible.

What insights can Bitcoin’s monthly and yearly performance shed? For the last 13 years, Bitcoin price has mostly up with an average monthly return of 14.32% over the period. 

In 2022 alone, the average monthly return was -7.39%, well below the 13-year average of 14.32% for BTC price. Based purely on speculation, Bitcoin price needs to rally approximately 81% from the current position at $17,000 for 2022’s average return to merely reach 0%.

BTC monthly return

BTC monthly return

Is an 81% upswing likely in December 2022?

It is highly unlikely that Bitcoin price will surge 81% in under 30 days. Judging from the 13-year history, the average monthly return for BTC in December is only 12.34%. From a conservative standpoint, only a 10% to 15% upswing is probable.

If such an outlook plays out, Bitcoin price should tag $19,500. Interestingly, this level coincides with the target forecasted in the previous weekly forecast.

Outliers in the decade-long lifespan of the big crypto show that the highest return in December was 470%, which happened in 2013 when BTC was extremely volatile. 2017, however, saw a 54% upswing, so it is not outside the realm of the possibility that Bitcoin price will rally to $30,000. 

In fact, the technicals present a bullish falling wedge pattern, a breakout from which could trigger a 54% upswing in Bitcoin price to $32,191. Furthermore, three critical on-chain metrics that focus on investor health, selling pressure and smart money actions point to all the conditions required for BTC price to kick-start a bear market rally as the year comes to an end.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

While the bullish outlook for Bitcoin price makes sense, investors should consider the other side of the argument - uncertainty. With the United States Federal Reserve looking to cut down interest rate hikes from 75 basis points (bps) to 50 bps, things could take a turn for the worse.

Every time the Fed has pivoted from hawkish to dovish, the markets have suffered a bearish fate. The last time this happened was after the Great Recession of 2008, which led to a 35% drop in the S&P 500. 

Fed pivot vs S&P 500

Fed pivot vs S&P 500

Since Bitcoin price and the stock market are highly correlated, the big crypto could follow suit and trigger a massive crash. Investors should note that a breakdown of the $16,700 support level will be the first sign of trouble or waning interest from buyers. 

However, losing the $15,550 support level will create a lower low and skew the odds in the bears’ favor. This invalidation of the bullish outlook could trigger another Bitcoin price sell-off to the potential macro bottom region, extending from $13,575 to $11,898.

 


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Join Telegram

Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content


Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Arbitrum receives 2.5 million ARB funding request from Wormhole foundation

Arbitrum receives 2.5 million ARB funding request from Wormhole foundation

Wormhole, a crypto and web3 messaging protocol, has submitted a proposal to encourage users to mint native USDC on the Arbitrum chain. The goal is to attract 100 million USDC and migrate it from other chains to Arbitrum.

More Arbitrum News

Tether increased its secured loans in Q2 despite commitment to reduce lending

Tether increased its secured loans in Q2 despite commitment to reduce lending

Tether Holdings has resumed the lending of its stablecoins in the form of secured loans to clients after announcing that it is set to wind down this practice less than a year ago. The information came to light in the firm’s recent quarterly financial update, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal. 

More Tether News

XRP price recovery likely as Ripple executives call out SEC and Chair Gary Gensler for their stance on crypto

XRP price recovery likely as Ripple executives call out SEC and Chair Gary Gensler for their stance on crypto

XRP price outlook is bullish as the asset tests the supply zone at $0.5174. Pro-XRP attorney John Deaton shared his views on the likelihood of a settlement by the SEC in its lawsuit against Ripple. 

More Ripple News

Mt Gox creditors hit by delay in repayment deadlines for $3.8 billion in Bitcoin

Mt Gox creditors hit by delay in repayment deadlines for $3.8 billion in Bitcoin

In a September 21 letter, the Mt Gox Rehabilitation Trustee, Nobuaki Kobayashi shared that he has received permission from the Tokyo District Court to extend the deadline for the three phases of repayment of creditor funds.

More Cryptocurrencies News

Bitcoin: BTC contemplates crash in September

Bitcoin: BTC contemplates crash in September

Bitcoin price remains unfazed by the US CPI announcement on September 13 and continues to move in a range. The weekly chart, however, shows a potential short-term recovery rally that could set the stage for a steep correction.

Read full analysis

BTC

ETH

XRP