Bitcoin Stock-to-flow model invalidated as BTC closes 2021 below $100,000
- Experts argue that the Stock-to-flow model can no longer be used for serious price prediction.
- Plan B, the model's creator, has now set a new target for Bitcoin price in 2022.
- Analysts predict further downside in Bitcoin price trend, and set a target of $38,000 for mid-January.
Bitcoin Stock-to-flow model created by Plan B has been invalidated as the asset closes in 2021 below $100,000. Analysts have a bearish outlook on Bitcoin price for the first quarter of 2022.
Bitcoin S2F invalidated, creator argues model remains valid
The creator of the Stock-to-flow model (S2F) continues to remain bullish on Bitcoin. Plan B's prediction that Bitcoin price would hit $98,000 in November and $135,000 in December was invalidated.
Plan B believes that S2F is intact despite the price prediction model's failure. The analyst was quoted as saying,
"BTC will rebound between 50,000 and 200,000 through 2024. We are at 50,000, the current ath is 69,000, and we will likely hit 200,000 before that. 2024."
Let me be clear:
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 24, 2021
1) Nov98K & Dec135K miss = FLOOR MODEL FAIL
2) Dec100K miss: I have said earlier that if BTC<$100K Dec2021, then S2F is “off the rails” “invalidated” “dead”. Tbh that was an ill attempt to clarify “$100K average this cycle” & regression analysis. S2F MODEL INTACT pic.twitter.com/LRdfLinTm4
The creator has changed his prediction and asked users to wait for the next two and a half years before invalidating S2F. Plan B argued,
If BTC stays within 1sd [standard deviation] band for the next 2.5 yrs, then the S2F model is still valid and indeed useful for me. Of course, you should make your own call.
Plan B's S2F has been severely criticized by @davthewave, a crypto analyst and educator.
It's a wrap.
— dave the wave (@davthewave) January 1, 2022
s2f as a model for *serious price prediction* has been invalidated
That doesn't mean to say it hasn't been a very successful *meme*, and some may choose to continue with it as a meme
The original thread was about drawing that distinction https://t.co/2TVAFRur0h
As Bitcoin price continues its downtrend, @CryptoWarrior01, a crypto analyst, has predicted continuation and set a target of $38,000 to $40,000 by mid-January 2022.
$BTC heading into the New Year currently not shaping up for bulls.
— RNB (Crypto Warrior) (@CryptoWarrior01) December 31, 2021
- OBV trending bear
-MACD bullish diverging from previous downtrend, but expecting more downside
-7MA also has price action as resistance.
$38k-40k by mid Jan - then moon
join me @ https://t.co/vyCxNDfacc pic.twitter.com/g3SioFFBLw
FXStreet analysts believe that Bitcoin price could retest $50,000 and try to advance to the $53,000 target.
Author
Ekta Mourya
FXStreet
Ekta Mourya has extensive experience in fundamental and on-chain analysis, particularly focused on impact of macroeconomics and central bank policies on cryptocurrencies.
