• Bitcoin price is currently hovering above $27,000, recovering through September and preparing for a decline in Q4.
  • Over the past nine years, BTC has noted a pattern of three bullish years followed by a bearish year, which was the case in 2022.
  • Since 2023 began, BTC has observed a correction of 18% on average following a local top; imitating this will send BTC to $22,800.

While it is true that the crypto market tends to be arbitrary in its movement, the case with Bitcoin is slightly different. The first cryptocurrency in the world happens to have a pattern that has proved true despite the challenges from external factors. The same pattern this time around gives us an idea of where BTC might land by 2024.

Bitcoin price will most likely fall again

Bitcoin price is currently hovering above the $27,000 mark, which came after a couple of days of green candlesticks, followed by a slight dip over the past 48 days. While this in itself does not give much away, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) does. 

Since the beginning of the year, the indicator has observed a three-month session during which the RSI corrects following a breach of the overbought zone beyond the 70.0 mark.

In line with this, the next three months are most likely to witness a cooldown of the market, which would be accompanied by a drawdown. Since, in the past, this period has resulted in an average decline of 18.3%, an 18.3% fall would bring BTC to $22,840.

BTC/USD 1-day chart

BTC/USD 1-day chart

While it would be a considerable decrease from the peak of the price, it would still be well above the level BTC was at on January 1.

The bigger picture

The three-month pattern is not arbitrary since it feeds into the larger pattern observed in the past nine years. If Bitcoin price closes at $22,840 at the end of the year, it would be 37% above the 2023 opening price of $16,496. This is in line with the behavior of the cryptocurrency observed in the past nine years.

Starting 2014, BTC has been noting a pattern of one year of losses followed by three years of positive returns. This development has remained true irrespective of the external factors, i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic, crypto market contagions in 2022, etc.

Bitcoin returns pattern

Thus, if Bitcoin price ends up following this pattern, it would establish 2023 to be the year when BTC would still be noting gains. Given that, in the past, the year following losses tends to bear lesser profits, a 37% rise would fit the bill. This gives investors hope that in 2024, the cryptocurrency will witness a considerable increase in price.

 

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