Bitcoin price prediction: A new old history leads the forecast

- The BTC/USD pair replicates a pattern already seen in the bullish breakout of 2018.

- A detailed analysis reveals that price compression is an illusion.

- The BTC/USD pair enjoys strong support for its bullish project.

The BTC/USD is in a period of technical agony, trapped between multiple technical hurdles.

Since late June, when the BTC/USD pair set the relative maximum at $13,000, the Bitcoin has been sliding down a medium-term bearish channel. 

The current scenario is a small-sized replica of the situation seen by the BTC/USD pair from the late 2017 highs to the December 2018 lows. On this occasion, the break was on the rising side. 

Short-term volatility and ATR levels are at higher levels than one might expect, which keeps away the chance of a violent break. If it does occur, it will not have its origin in a price overcompression.

In a bullish scenario, the BTC/USD pair target for breakage of the bear channel is at $10,280. To reach this level, it must first pass the SMA100 which is currently at $9,585.

Conquered the bullish scenario above $10,280, the next target would be at $11,448 (50% level of the Fibonacci retracement system), then at $13,400 (61,8% level of the Fibonacci retracement system) and finally,  the third one at the relative maximums of $19,811. Above is the Moon.

In a bearish scenario, the Bitcoin price supports are substantially more robust. First of all, the SMA200 at $9,148 as the first strong support. Then, the second at $8,692, confluence level of the SMA50 and the middle-band of the Bollinger Band system. 

If the BTC/USD lost the second support level at $8,692, then the third support would stand at $8,414 in the form of an ultra long term bullish channel ceiling. 

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