Bitcoin price uptrend to continue post-halving, Bernstein report says as traders remain in disarray

  • Bitcoin price has tested $60,364 to $62,412 range, a crucial support zone, one too many times.
  • FOMO and hype about BTC halving remains down amid enhanced market risk linked to geopolitical tensions.
  • Bernstein report says ETF inflows will resume and Bitcoin bull market will continue after BTC halving.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is dropping amid elevated risk levels in the market. It comes as traders count hours to the much-anticipated halving event. Amid the market lull, experts say we may not see a rally until after the halving. 

Also Read: Bitcoin price outlook amid increased demand and speculation pre-halving

Daily digest market movers: Bernstein experts don't expect Bitcoin rally until after halving

Bitcoin halving is expected on Saturday, April 20, a much-anticipated event that will cut miners’ block rewards to 3.125 BTC. Historically, prices soared about 1,000%, 200%, and 600% in the first three post-halving periods. The events have also been associated with significant fluctuations in the BTC price. Although not a direct cause-and-effect relationship, these individual slashes have often preceded substantial bull runs in the Bitcoin market. 

The pre-halving period has often been defined by volatility, although things are different this time amid elevated risk levels because of geopolitical tension and the influence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

There has been a lull in the market with Bitcoin price. According to a report from experts at Bernstein, this bullishness will only restore after halving when exchange-traded fund (ETFs) flows continue. ETF flows have rather died down as of late, adding to the list of data points that traders have to worry about.

Bernstein researchers anticipate around 7% of the network hash rate to shut down after the halving ascribed to less efficient mining operations becoming unprofitable. The reduction will be because of strong price action due to ETFs increasing revenues.  

Meanwhile, while the ETF narrative in the US quells down, the situation in Asia is different after Hong Kong approved both BTC and ETH ETFs. Now, digital asset innovation firm 21Shares says there is speculation that South Korea, Japan and Singapore could follow suit.

As for Hong Kong, reports indicate that ETFs will start trading by April 30 and could bring in up to $25 billion in capital.

Crypto ETF FAQs

An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.

Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.

Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved outside the US, but the SEC is yet to approve one in the country. After BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF on June 15, the interest surrounding crypto ETFs has been renewed. Grayscale – whose application for a Bitcoin spot ETF was initially rejected by the SEC – got a victory in court, forcing the US regulator to review its proposal again. The SEC’s loss in this lawsuit has fueled hopes that a Bitcoin spot ETF might be approved by the end of the year.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin price must defend this level, lest a break below $60K is imminent

Bitcoin price is testing a crucial support, the demand zone between $60,364 and $62,412. The retests to this level are already one too many. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) teases with further downside and continues to slide lower to show momentum is falling.

The position of the momentum oscillator below the 50 mean level shows the average gains are smaller compared to average losses with price steadily dropping. This is reinforced by the lower highs on the RSI showing potential weakness in the price momentum. If this RSI trajectory extends, it could threaten the primary trend in the market to provide a buying opportunity lower.

Both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicators are in negative territory, showing a potential extension of the downward movement in price. Traders might want to consider shorting BTC for the short term, or at best, exercise caution if holding long positions.

A decisive candlestick close below the midline of the demand zone at $61,421 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend. In such a directional bias, Bitcoin price could drop to $59,005, the intraday low of the March 5 trading session before a recovery.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

Conversely, if the $61,421 level, and effectively the demand zone, holds as support, Bitcoin price could recover. While reclaiming above $65,276 would be ideal, more bulls are likely to come in upon a decisive candlestick close above $70,000 because of skepticism following multiple failed corrections.

For a confirmed uptrend, however, BTC bulls must haul BTC above the $72,198, the midline of the supply zone that ranges from $71,333 to $73,076. Such a move would encourage more bulls to drive BTC past the $73,777 peak as bulls eye the next all-time high above $74,000.   

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Join Telegram

Recommended content

Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

XRP struggles below $0.50 as Ripple proponent attorneys slam SEC for Ethereum “free pass”

XRP struggles below $0.50 as Ripple proponent attorneys slam SEC for Ethereum “free pass”

XRP trades back below $0.50 on Wednesday as Ripple (XRP) proponents like attorney Bill Morgan have lashed out at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for what is being considered a “second free pass” for Ethereum. 

More Ripple News

Ethereum survives SEC scrutiny: Enforcement division closes investigation into Ether, Consensys says

Ethereum survives SEC scrutiny: Enforcement division closes investigation into Ether, Consensys says

Ethereum (ETH) received a free pass from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as the regulator decided to drop its investigation into ETH for allegedly selling the token as a security. 

More Ethereum News

Polygon MATIC poised for 10% rally as momentum indicators signal strength

Polygon MATIC poised for 10% rally as momentum indicators signal strength

Polygon price formed a bullish divergence on a momentum indicator, signaling a reversal. On-chain data shows MATIC’s capitulation event occurred between June 12 and 18.

More Polygon News

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Bitcoin technical indicators signal bullish momentum

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Bitcoin technical indicators signal bullish momentum

Bitcoin price action shows a bullish divergence on a momentum indicator, signaling a forthcoming bullish trend. Ethereum and Ripple are poised to mirror Bitcoin's trajectory, preparing to breach resistance levels and rally upwards in tandem.

More Cryptocurrencies News

Bitcoin: Has BTC found a local price bottom?

Bitcoin: Has BTC found a local price bottom?

Bitcoin (BTC) price looks set for a mild fall this week, weighed by slight outflows in the US spot ETFs and the US Fed keeping a hawkish interest-rate outlook despite easing inflation. Technical indicators suggest that BTC could face a further 5% correction in the short term before resuming the uptrend.

Read full analysis