Bitcoin on track for $90,000 by 2024, as Global M2 money supply surge

Bitcoin (BTC) hovers slightly above $62,000 on Tuesday after a minor decline on Monday, buoyed by positive signs such as over $233 million in inflows into US Spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). At the same time, The Kobesissi Letter noted that the rising global M2 money supply could be a favorable signal for both Gold and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin may reach $90,000 by 2024 amid rising Global M2 money supply 

According to a recent tweet from The Kobeissi Letter, the total money supply in the United States (US), the Euro area, Japan, and China has reached a new record of $89.7 trillion, with $7.3 trillion added over the last year. In the US alone, the amount of money in circulation has surged $410 billion year-over-year to $21.2 trillion. This marks the largest increase in three years and a similar jump to the initial pandemic response in the first half of 2020 when favoring economic policies and stimulus packages caused global money printing. Such a condition has generally seen Gold and Bitcoin prices rally in the long term. 

Moreover, New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) reported last week that Bitcoin remains the best-performing asset this year, with a 49.2% year-to-date gain.

Diving deep, Bitcoin has a history of rising alongside the M2 money supply, with a lag of 75 to 90 days. Most analysts expect a healthy rally for BTC as 2024 closes out despite any headwinds that may influence economic conditions. 

According to market analyst Joe Consorti, the M2 trend suggests that Bitcoin could hit $90,000 by the end of 2024. Furthermore, CryptoQuant data also has a similar projection for Bitcoin price.  

Additionally, US Bitcoin Spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) data recorded an inflow of $233.8 million on Monday. Studying the ETF flow data can be useful for observing institutional investors’ sentiment for Bitcoin. If this magnitude of inflow continues, demand for Bitcoin will increase, leading to a rise in its price. 

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow chart. Source: Coinglass

Furthermore, Metaplanet Inc., a company publicly listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, announced on Monday an additional purchase of 108.786 bitcoin for a total investment of 1 billion yen (approximately $6.7 million). The average purchase price was 9.19 million yen per BTC. With this acquisition, Metaplanet’s total Bitcoin holdings now stand at 639.503 BTC. Metaplanet’s move could pave the way for broader adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, among other companies.

Finally, crypto asset trading firm Capital QCP’s Monday report highlights the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Thursday. “With the recent strong US wage and jobs numbers, the market will be paying close attention to this print for any signs of an uptick in inflation. Fed rate cut expectations have shifted from 50 bps to 25 bps in just a week, and this week’s data may determine if further cuts get priced out,” said QCP. 

BTC holds $62,000 support level

Bitcoin price found support at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around $60,000, on October 2. It rose 3.5% in the following four days and broke above the $62,125 resistance level. As of Tuesday, BTC trades just above $62,000.

If the $62,125 holds as support, BTC could extend the rally to retest its psychological level of $66,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is at 52, just above its neutral level of 50, indicating a lack of momentum and indecisiveness among traders. For Bitcoin’s strength to be sustained, the RSI must rise above its neutral level and continue rising. 

BTC/USDT daily chart

However, if the $62,125 level fails, BTC could decline to retest its 200-day EMA level at $60,000.