Two years ago Bitcoin was the star of many families' after-dinner celebrations. In 2017, the discussion went back and forth between evangelizing crypto-believers and cautious, reluctant doubters who hesitated that an ethereal algorithm could have not only present or future value.
Months later, the second group spanked the first one, punishing not just those who had succumbed and bought at maximums, but also those who did not enjoy their moment of moral superiority.
Last year, I was involved in a discussion when I expressed my conviction that buying Bitcoins for $3,300 or Ethereum for $100 was a great business. Nobody listened to me, losing the opportunity to quadruple their portfolio, or more in the case of Litecoin, in a few months.
This year's holiday season comes in a compromising situation for the crypto sector. Prices are falling fast, but during the year cryptos have shown that they can fly high, very high.
These are my five reasons for taking the buyer's side at the next table.
The crypto market has shown throughout this year that it is still very much alive and that it keeps intact the capital attraction potential it has always enjoyed.
1. After reaching relative lows in December 2018 at $3,100, the BTC/USD pair managed to reach $14,000, very close to historic highs. A decaying asset does not behave this way.
The same goes for Ethereum, Litecoin, Ethereum Cash or EOS.
This year has also made it clear that other projects with lower levels of community adoption have not reacted as well when the sentiment was positive.
Lesson 1: Concentrate purchases among the cryptocurrencies that have shown this year that they continue to have the support of the market. We may miss some record profitability, but we save some unwanted scare.
2. The investment can be minimal.
You don't have to buy a Bitcoin or Ethereum to enter this market. One of the main advantages of cryptocurrencies is that they are fractional to almost infinity. A Bitcoin is composed of one million Satoshis, and an Ethereum has up to five decimal places to fraction it.
Lesson 2: The optimal way to get a portfolio of Cryptocurrencies is via the periodic purchase (every week or month) of the amount you can allocate, without jeopardizing your financial peace of mind. Some studies proved that you get an excellent average purchase price with periodical purchases. Many platforms allow you to automate this process.
3. Institutional investors are still behind the opportunity to enter this new investor segment.
During this year, many licenses have been denied for ETF projects on Bitcoin, but the futures on Bitcoin are consolidating, and soon futures on Ethereum will be launched. If institutions continue to push in the direction of getting access to the crypto market, it is because they foresee a growth in the future.
Lesson 3: If we find it too complicated to access this investment segment using exchanges or specialized companies, or if we do not want to have to learn to use wallets, let's wait for the ETFs. The interest aroused by this type of instrument keeps the prospects of significant inflows of money high if one of the many projects presented to the regulatory bodies is finally approved.
4. You don't have to buy a Bitcoin to own a Bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies quotes not only against fiat currencies such as the Dollar or the Euro. In exchanges, they quote against many other cryptocurrencies.
The most famous of these crosses, and the most frequently used, is the ETH/BTC pair. During the last two years, the primary trend has been in favor of Bitcoin. Historically, bearish trends have implicitly led to better Bitcoin behavior than Ethereum. Upward trends do the opposite.
Lesson 4: Buying an Ethereum now, around $150 and equivalent to 0.0204 Bitcoin, could be valued at 0.10, or one-tenth of a Bitcoin. With predictions that put the value of Bitcoin at $1,000,000 in 2034, you do the math. Perhaps it's a perfect gift for your children or younger relatives.
5. Patterns of behavior indicate that in the next few months, the price of Bitcoin will begin to multiply. In May, approximately on the 14th, there will be a halving event, and the Bitcoins mining will award half the coins for the mining effort.
This halving event directly involves approximately doubling the cost, and therefore the price at which the miners are willing to sell it.
Historically these events have resulted in exponential rises. According to past development, holders can expect a return of x15.
Lesson 5: Although past performance does not guarantee it will repeat in the future, the current brief statistic supports the repetition of the developments from previous halving events.
Despite the doubts, this is the clearest approximation we have to the most likely behavior. It is the magic of statistics and in trading, as in life, it works.
Despite the doubts, this is the clearest approximation we have to the most likely behavior. It is the magic of statistics and in trading, as in life, it works.
I hope I have given you arguments on an excellent after-dinner.
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