Weekly waves: EUR/USD, XAU/USD and Bitcoin

EUR/USD bearish decline in ABC pattern

The EUR/USD break below the support zone (dotted green), which indicated a larger bearish move rather than a bullish correction:

1. The EUR/USD is probably building a bearish ABC (orange) pattern.

2. The ABC (orange) should complete a wave B (yellow) of a larger ABC (yellow).

3. The ABC (yellow) pattern could complete a wave 4 (pink).

4. Price action could fall towards the deeper Fibonacci levels or the previous bottom.

5. A bullish bounce could retest the resistance lines (purple) and 23.6% Fibonacci level.

6. A bear flag pattern (gray lines) followed by a bearish break invalidates the bullish ABC and indicates an immediate downtrend.

Bitcoin testing solid and key support

The BTC/USD (Bitcoin) is facing three different scenarios, which are indicated by s1, s2, and s3 (green):

1. The first scenario (s1 green) is indicating an immediate bearish breakout towards the -27.2% Fibonacci target.

2. The second scenario (s2 green) is indicating a retest of the resistance and then a bounce towards the same Fib target. Both s1 and s2 are part of wave C (yellow)

3. The third scenario (s3 green) is indicating a larger bullish retracement within a wave A (yellow) of a larger wave X (pink).

4. Eventually, the wave C (yellow) should complete a wave W (pink).

5. A larger WXY (pink) correction is expected within wave 2 (gray).

XAU/USD bullish bounce or reversal at 50% fibonacci

Gold (XAU/USD) has made a strong bullish bounce (reversal?) at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level:

1. The Gold bounce at the 50% Fib could confirm the end of the wave 4 (pink).

2. A larger wave 5 (orange) of a wave C (yellow) could have completed at the 50% Fib.

3. The strong bullish bounce could be a wave 1-2 (orange) of a larger wave 1 (yellow).

4. This bullish reversal could remain valid as long as price action stays above the bottom at the 50% Fibonacci level.

---

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method simple wave analysis and trading. For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter