Razvan Mihai, CFTe
Forex Rally
EURUSD - Played with the investors
As it moved mostly sideways last week, I have the feeling that the EURUSD played with the investors. The price managed to reach a higher high last week, but did not touch 1.1000 resistance levels. The up move was not strong enough to reach the round number level, while the dips were annihilating most of the winnings.At this point things tend to be clearer. The down trend line for the channel was broken and the price retested it. At the same time a new trend line emerged from the last up move. At this moment, from the technical perspective, there are 50% chances to go up and 50 to go down. As strong confirmation conditions we could take the following:If the price will break above 1.1000 and confirm the ascending triangle, I will be expecting a rally towards 1.1200. If the price will break and close below the area between the channel trend line (marked with 1) and the up move trend line (marked with 2) I will be expecting a drop back towards 1.0800, or even lower towards 1.0700.
USDJPY – Continued the downtrend
USDJPY gave a bullish signal in the beginning of last week. The signal was confirmed and respected. The price covered the negative gap and rallied towards the resistance from 118.63. It stopped very close and bounced back down to touch another lower low for the current trend. Last week’s bullish signal is stronger now. The price moved closer to the key support level from 116.16, the down trend line was broken and the divergence with the 14 periods RSI became stronger. I believe this week bears and bulls will battle for the 116.16 support. Even though there are strong bullish signals, bears might try their luck to push against the support. On the other hand, a break above 118.63 would be a confirmation of the bullish signals.
NZDUSD – Fighting for 0.6400
The price of NZDUSD continued to fall last week. The last dip managed to push the price below 0.6400, but not for long. Bulls pushed back and now is trading around 0.6450. The slope of the down trend has been a little bit modified, but it still shows strong bearish momentum.For this week I am expecting for the price to retest 0.6400 and to push strongly against it. If a four hour candle will manage to close below 0.6380, the current low, I believe that we could witness a drop towards the next key level support found at 0.6250. On the other hand a break confirmed by a close above 0.6500 would signal a comeback of the kiwi and we might see a rally towards 0.6600.
As it moved mostly sideways last week, I have the feeling that the EURUSD played with the investors. The price managed to reach a higher high last week, but did not touch 1.1000 resistance levels. The up move was not strong enough to reach the round number level, while the dips were annihilating most of the winnings.At this point things tend to be clearer. The down trend line for the channel was broken and the price retested it. At the same time a new trend line emerged from the last up move. At this moment, from the technical perspective, there are 50% chances to go up and 50 to go down. As strong confirmation conditions we could take the following:If the price will break above 1.1000 and confirm the ascending triangle, I will be expecting a rally towards 1.1200. If the price will break and close below the area between the channel trend line (marked with 1) and the up move trend line (marked with 2) I will be expecting a drop back towards 1.0800, or even lower towards 1.0700.
USDJPY – Continued the downtrend
USDJPY gave a bullish signal in the beginning of last week. The signal was confirmed and respected. The price covered the negative gap and rallied towards the resistance from 118.63. It stopped very close and bounced back down to touch another lower low for the current trend. Last week’s bullish signal is stronger now. The price moved closer to the key support level from 116.16, the down trend line was broken and the divergence with the 14 periods RSI became stronger. I believe this week bears and bulls will battle for the 116.16 support. Even though there are strong bullish signals, bears might try their luck to push against the support. On the other hand, a break above 118.63 would be a confirmation of the bullish signals.
NZDUSD – Fighting for 0.6400
The price of NZDUSD continued to fall last week. The last dip managed to push the price below 0.6400, but not for long. Bulls pushed back and now is trading around 0.6450. The slope of the down trend has been a little bit modified, but it still shows strong bearish momentum.For this week I am expecting for the price to retest 0.6400 and to push strongly against it. If a four hour candle will manage to close below 0.6380, the current low, I believe that we could witness a drop towards the next key level support found at 0.6250. On the other hand a break confirmed by a close above 0.6500 would signal a comeback of the kiwi and we might see a rally towards 0.6600.
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