Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers ahead
December 2015 looks set to be a dream month for interest rate nerds given the prospect of the ECB cutting and the Fed hiking for the first time since mid-2006. The ECB gets to kick off the party on Thursday, when we expect it both to lower its deposit rate by 20bp and to extend and enlarge its QE programme.
Friday brings the November jobs report stateside, which will give us our last insight into the current state of the US labour market before the Fed decides whether to hike on 16 December. We expect somewhat lower employment growth in November than in October but 175,000 new jobs in a month would still point to higher interest rates.
In addition, just to keep things interesting in our dream month, the week also brings the ISM in the US, flash inflation in Europe and the PMI in China.
Global macro and market themes
December 2015 looks set to be a dream month for interest rate nerds given the prospect of the ECB cutting and the Fed hiking for the first time since mid-2006. The ECB gets to kick off the party on Thursday, when we expect it both to lower its deposit rate by 20bp and to extend and enlarge its QE programme.
Friday brings the November jobs report stateside, which will give us our last insight into the current state of the US labour market before the Fed decides whether to hike on 16 December. We expect somewhat lower employment growth in November than in October but 175,000 new jobs in a month would still point to higher interest rates.
In addition, just to keep things interesting in our dream month, the week also brings the ISM in the US, flash inflation in Europe and the PMI in China.
Global macro and market themes
- Euro area growth set to reaccelerate.
- ECB preparing to cut...
- ...while the Fed is ready for lift-off.
- Bond yields set to move higher.
- China bottoming but medium-term challenges remain.
- CNY under increased pressure - more in store.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD retreats below 1.0700 as USD rebounds
EUR/USD lost its traction and retreated slightly below 1.0700 in the American session, erasing its daily gains in the process. Following a bearish opening, the US Dollar holds its ground and limits the pair's upside ahead of the Fed policy meeting later this week.
USD/JPY recovers toward 157.00 following suspected intervention
USD/JPY recovers ground and trades above 156.50 after sliding to 154.50 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. Later this week, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and US employment data could trigger the next big action.
Gold holds steady above $2,330 to start the week
Gold fluctuates in a relatively tight channel above $2,330 on Monday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield corrects lower and helps XAU/USD limit its losses ahead of this week's key Fed policy meeting.
Week Ahead: Bitcoin could surprise investors this week Premium
Two main macroeconomic events this week could attempt to sway the crypto markets. Bitcoin (BTC), which showed strength last week, has slipped into a short-term consolidation.
Five Fundamentals for the week: Fed fears, Nonfarm Payrolls, Middle East promise an explosive week Premium
Higher inflation is set to push Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues to a hawkish decision. Nonfarm Payrolls are set to rock markets, but the ISM Services PMI released immediately afterward could steal the show.