Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers ahead
The most important event in the US this week is the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is likely to reiterate the ‘considerable time’ forward guidance and the ‘significant underutilisation’ description of the labour market.
ECB to publish the asset quality review (AQR) and the stress test of banks’ balance sheets this Sunday.
Euro zone HICP inflation to edge higher from 0.3% y/y in September to 0.6% y/y in October.
The Swedish Riksbank is expected to cut the policy rate by 15bp to 0.10% and to present a significantly flatter rate path.
Global macro and market themes
The extent of the US soft patch will be important for risk assets and bond yields.
We look for an only moderate slowdown but expect ISM to come down in coming quarters.
Volatility expected to remain high for some time.
Still no signs of a turnaround in the euro area, while Japan is recovering and China shows resilience.
Focus
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