Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers ahead
US activity data next week will provide some early information about how much of the recent slowdown that can be attributed to the weather.
In Europe, the German CPI data will be key to judging the easing pressure on the ECB. If the PMIs and the credit data soften, the ECB could move in April.
In the UK, the severe weather conditions are likely to continue to distort the data. The February retail sales data is likely to reflect this.
In China, the PMI is expected to improve, but this will merely reflect a seasonal boost related to the New Year. The underlying trend remains weak.
In Sweden, the consumer and business confidence indicator from NIER will provide a fresh measurement of the state of the economy
In Norway, we do not expect any changes in either the policy rate or the interest rate projections from Norges Bank.
Global macro and market themes
While risk appetite recovered well during the past week, we continue to hold a cautious view on the stock market. Slowing growth, higher geopolitical risks, stretched market pricing and a hawkish Fed are keeping us sidelined for now.
The tide has turned for bond yields. We look for a gradual rise over the next month as US data rebounds again and the market still trades below the Fed's projected rate path.
While US data is in for a rebound following bad weather, the euro releases have softened somewhat. We are slightly concerned about the cumulated strengthening of the euro coupled with slower euro growth.
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