I’m looking for buying opportunities on USD/JPY after the pair broke above 102.00 this week,this was supported by a risk on sentiment and a stronger USD due to recent positive data. Focus turns to today’s US Nonfarm Payrolls, expected at 231K, withthe unemployment rate expected unchanged at 6.1%, anything above 200k for NFP would be positive for the USD.
Make sure to keep a close eye on the news feeds in case any further safe-haven flows develop which could push this pair lower, also we cautious because if NFP comes out worse than expected and below 200k, we could see USD/JPY fall back down towards 102.00.
You can look to go long this pair around the 102.80 area with a target of 103.50 to 104.00 and a SL around 102.15.
Overall Bias on this trade
This is a longer-term trade setup and I remain slightly bullish on the USD in the long term but feel that USD/JPY will rally mainly because of central banks differences, with the FED tapering QE and getting closer to hiking rates and the BOJ still full steam ahead with their QE programme.
If NFP comes out below 200k we could see USD/JPY fall down to 102.00 support and I expect it to be supported, so this would be an even better price to buy USD/JPY.
Upcoming Risk Events
Today we have US Nonfarm Payrolls, expected at 231K, with the unemployment rate expected unchanged at 6.1%, anything above 200k for NFP would be positive for the USD and should push USD/JPY above 103.00.
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