U.S. Review

Sparklers, not Fireworks, in June Jobs Report

  • Employers added 223,000 new jobs in June, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.3 percent. Although nearly within striking distance of the Fed’s range for full employment, June’s decline was largely driven by another drop in the participation rate.

  • Consumer confidence jumped 6.8 points in June on the back of better assessments of the labor market and business conditions.

  • The ISM manufacturing index rose for the third straight month. However, at 53.6, the index indicates that growth in the factory sector remains modest.

The labor market made further strides in June, with employers adding 223,000 jobs over the month and the unemployment rate fell to a new cycle low of 5.3 percent. While job gains were nearly in line with expectations and still indicate a strong pace of hiring, details were somewhat disappointing. First, job growth in April and May was revised lower by a total of 60,000 jobs. Second, the decline in the unemployment rate came amid a sizeable drop in the labor force, which brought the labor force participation rate down 0.3 percentage points to a new cycle low of 62.6 percent. The participation rate had shown nascent signs of stabilizing over the past year, making it unclear whether June’s drop is part of normal volatility in the household survey, or the continuation of the downward trend that has dominated over the course of the expansion.

Hopes for further signs of a clear turnaround in wage growth were dashed in today’s report; average hourly earnings were flat in June and May’s increase was revised down by one-tenth. Average hourly earnings are now up just 2.0 percent over the past year, consistent with the general pace of growth seen over the expansion.

Consumer Confidence Looking Up

The further strengthening in the labor market has likely been a big factor in boosting consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence jumped 6.8 points in June and is now back above 100. Views of the labor market improved, with the labor differential—the share of respondents reporting jobs are plentiful minus the share reporting jobs are hard to get—rising to its second-highest mark of the expansion. The pickup in confidence also comes as gasoline prices have risen more than usual this time of year. Typically, this would be associated with deterioration in confidence, but consumers may be beginning to feel like the plunge in gas prices over the past year is not going to be reversed anytime soon.

Plans to purchase a home in the next six months remained steady at 5.9 percent, the second-highest reading since 2014. It is a little too early to tell whether the recent backup in mortgage rates is affecting activity in the housing market. Mortgage applications for purchase fell 4.1 percent this week, but are at the highest level in nearly two years on a four-week moving average basis. Pending home sales have also continued to grind higher, rising 0.9 percent in May and 8.3 percent over the past year.

Manufacturing Activity on the Rebound

Elsewhere, data on the manufacturing sector showed the worst of the industry’s recent soft patch may be behind us. The ISM manufacturing index edged up 0.7 points in June. That puts the index back at January’s level, before the West Coast Port issues came to a head and when the dollar was still rapidly rising. Although durable goods orders have yet to show as convincing of a turnaround, the rise in the ISM new orders index to a six-month high provides further evidence that the weakness in the factory sector is fading.


Global Review

Mixed but Mostly Positive Week in Japan

  • There were some conflicting indicators this week about the health of the struggling Japanese economy. Retail sales figures surprised on the upside, lifting prospects for second quarter consumer spending.

  • Industrial production slowed sharply in May but another key measure of manufacturing activity increased for the second quarter. On balance, these mixed messages viewed in the context of last week’s CPI report indicate that BoJ policymakers have little reason to change the pace of the current expansion of the monetary base in Japan.

Pickup in Japan’s Retail Sales

We have made the case previously that despite Japan’s many economic challenges, there was room for growth in consumer spending. A big reason why consumer spending has been so weak is that, despite nominal wage increases, real wages have been under pressure. As we passed the anniversary of the April 2014 consumption tax increase, CPI inflation has slowed with a corresponding boost to real wage growth.

May retail sales figures topped consensus expectations. The 1.7 percent monthly gain was the largest sequential monthly increase in nine months. While it is too soon to bank on a rejuvenated Japanese consumer, it is an indication that second quarter GDP growth should get some help from consumer spending. Gains in May retail sales were broadly based with increases at discount retailers and even larger gains in department stores.

Conflicting Reads on Japanese Factory Sector

A key measure of output for the Japanese economy also hit the wire this week and was decidedly negative for the outlook for Japanese manufacturing. Industrial production tumbled 2.2 percent in May and is now off 4.0 percent on a year-over-year basis. Inventories, which have increased every month so far this year, climbed another 0.9 percent in May.

The vital auto sector is under pressure in Japan with vehicle production down 16.6 percent from a year ago. That is the largest annual decline in auto assemblies since 2012. The disappointing output figures are offset by improving auto sales which increased 5.4 percent in June on a year-over-year basis.

Tempering the concerns about the outlook for manufacturing, we also learned this week that the Tankan Large Manufacturing Index—a key yardstick for activity in the Japanese factory sector—climbed to a reading of 15 in June. The highest reading since the global recession was 17, so the current measure suggests a much better situation than the “hard data” industrial production figures. Similarly the service sector measure from the Tankan report also rose to 23, not far from the cycle high of 24.

Both measures were better than consensus expectations and suggest that the business sector in Japan is encouraged by the measures taken by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to spur economic growth and CPI inflation.

Last week, we learned that CPI inflation in Japan came in a shade stronger than expected at 0.5 percent vs. expectations for 0.4 percent. These were May figures, so they reflect the second month after the effects of last year’s consumption tax which boosted prices. Both headline and core inflation are rather weak at present. We suspect that prices will climb gradually this year as we begin to emerge from the shadow of the tax hike, but inflation will remain well below the BoJ’s stated target of 2.0 percent over time. Given the offsetting nature of this week’s data, there is little to push BoJ to change the present pace of monetary base expansion.

Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks. If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets. Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement. Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account. Fast Markets A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system. In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors. Potential Risks in a Fast Market "Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. Large Orders in Fast Markets Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5. In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees. This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted. Online Trading and Duplicate Orders Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed. Limit Orders Can Limit Risk A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected. Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.

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