AUD/USD - Successful test thus far of the key support at 0.8643

EUR/USD

Trying to bounce.

• EUR/USD has moved below the key support at 1.2501, confirming persistent selling pressures. However, prices are trying to bounce near the support at 1.2466. The short-term bearish momentum is intact as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 1.2544 (intraday high). Another resistance can be found at 1.2632. 

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a downtrend since May 2014. The break of the strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low) has opened the way for a decline towards the strong support at 1.2043 (24/07/2012 low). A key resistance stands at 1.2886 (15/10/2014 high).

Sell stop 2 units at 1.2430, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.2255, remaining at 1.2053, Stop: 1.2524.

GBP/USD

Trying to form a short-term base?

• GBP/USD is trying to stabilise after the recent bearish breakout at 1.5995. A break of the hourly resistance at 1.6038 (30/10/2014 high) is needed to improve the short-term technical structure. Another hourly resistance stands at 1.6088 (28/10/2014 low). An hourly support lies at 1.5927 (03/11/2014 low).

• In the longer term, given the significant deterioration of the technical structure since July, the strong resistance area between 1.6525 (19/09/2014 high) and 1.6644 (01/09/2014 high) is expected to cap any upside in the coming months. Monitor the current consolidation phase near the strong support at 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Approaching the resistance at 114.66.

• USD/JPY has broken the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high), confirming the longterm underlying uptrend. Monitor the resistance at 114.66 (27/12/2007 high). Hourly supports can be found at 112.57 (intraday low) and 111.89 (intraday low).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. The break of the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high) opens the way for a further rise towards 120.04 (61.8% retracement of the 1998-2011 decline). A key support lies at 105.44 (02/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

The resistance at 0.9691 has held thus far.

• USD/CHF has thus far failed to break the key resistance at 0.9691. An hourly support lies at 0.9612, while a more significant support stands at 0.9544.

• From a longer term perspective, the technical structure favours a full retracement of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. As a result, the recent weakness is seen as a countertrend move. A key support can be found at 0.9368 (15/10/2014 low). Key resistances stand at 0.9691 (06/10/2014 high) and 0.9839 (22/05/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Challenging the resistance at 1.1385.

• USD/CAD continues to rise and is now challenging its resistance at 1.1385. Hourly supports can be found at 1.1340 (intraday low) and 1.1259 (see also the rising trendline). Another resistance is given by the psychological threshold at 1.1500.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. The recent move above the resistance at 1.1279 (20/03/2014 high) confirms this bullish outlook. Strong supports can be found at 1.1072 (02/10/2014 low) and 1.0811 (29/08/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Successful test thus far of the key support at 0.8643.

• AUD/USD declined sharply yesterday confirming persistent selling pressures. The key support at 0.8643 has held thus far. Hourly resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 0.8755 (intraday high) and 0.8807 (intraday high).

• In the long-term, the underlying trend is negative. Despite the recent successful test of the strong support at 0.8660 (24/01/2014 low), the long-term technical structure favours further decline. A key resistance stands at 0.8950 (22/09/2014 high). Another strong support lies at 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Making 6-year highs.

• GBP/JPY has broken the key resistance at 180.72, confirming the underlying long-term rising trend. Hourly supports can be found at 180.56 (intraday high) and 179.66 (intraday low). A resistance is given by the 50% retracement from 2007 to 2011 decline (183.98).

• In the long-term, the trend is positive as long as the strong support area between 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) and 167.78 (18/03/2014 low) holds. The break of the strong resistance at 180.72 (19/09/2014 high) opens the way for further strength. A key resistance stands at 197.45 (24/09/2008 high).

Short 2 units at 180.82, Obj: Close 1 unit at 183.90, remaining at 196.80, Stop: 179.56 (Entered: 2014-11-03).

EUR/JPY

The key resistance at 141.23 has been broken.

• EUR/JPY has broken the key resistance at 141.23 (see also the declining channel). A resistance now stands at 143.79. Hourly support can be found at 141.40 (intraday high) and 140.40 (03/11/2014 low).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the key support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. The break of the strong resistance at 141.23 (19/09/2014 high) opens the way for a further rise towards the major resistance at 145.69.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Declining toward the key support at 0.7755.

• EUR/GBP remains weak. A test of the key support area between at 0.7767 (30/09/2014 low) and 0.7755 is favoured. Hourly resistances stand at 0.7867 (intraday high) and 0.7885 (31/10/2014 high). An hourly support now lies at 0.7800.

• In the longer term, the underlying downtrend favours a test of the major support area between 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low) and 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low) at minimum. A decisive break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Remains weak.

• EUR/CHF is roughly moving sideways, although the succession of lower highs favours a bearish bias. The hourly support at 1.2053 (27/10/2014 low) is challenged. A key support stands at 1.2045. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.2069 (31/10/2014 high) and 1.2080.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which will be enforced with the "utmost determination". As a result, further sideways moves are expected in the mediumterm.

Await fresh signal.

GOLD (in USD)

Bearish breakout at 1181.

• Gold has broken the key support at 1181, confirming the underlying bearish trend. The recent consolidation near the support at 1157 is thus far unimpressive. Hourly resistances can be found at 1183 (06/10/2014 low) and 1196 (30/10/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the move below the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) confirms the underlying downtrend and opens the way for further declines towards the strong support at 1027 (28/10/2009 low). A resistance can now be found at 1255 (21/10/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Trying to bounce.

• Silver has displayed significant daily lower shadows for the last two days, suggesting some pickup in buying interest. Hourly resistances can be found at 16.24 (03/11/2014 high) and 16.54 (31/10/2014 high). An hourly support now lies at 15.77 (03/11/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend and favours further decline towards the strong support at 14.64 (05/02/2010 low). A resistance lies at 17.80 (15/10/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.