GBP/USD - Will it be able to make a higher high?

EUR/USD

The rebound is fading.

• EUR/USD has weakened near the hourly resistance at 1.2901. The hourly support at 1.2706 (see also the rising channel) is challenged. Another hourly support can be found at 1.2625 (15/10/2014 low), while a key support stands at 1.2501. An hourly resistance lies at 1.2845 (16/10/2014 high).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a downtrend since May 2014. The break of the strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low) has opened the way for a decline towards the strong support at 1.2043 (24/07/2012 low). As a result, the recent strength in EUR/USD is seen as a countertrend move. A key resistance stands at 1.2995 (16/09/2014 high).

• Given yesterday's move, we need to work on a new short strategy.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Will it be able to make a higher high?

• GBP/USD has bounced sharply near the key support at 1.5855. However, prices have thus far failed to invalidate their succession of lower highs. As a result, monitor the resistance at 1.6227. Hourly supports lie at 1.6030 (17/10/2014 low) and 1.5942 (16/10/2014 low). Another resistance stands at 1.6287.

• In the longer term, the collapse in prices after having reached 4-year highs has created a strong resistance at 1.7192, which is unlikely to be broken in the coming months. Despite the recent short-term bearish momentum, we favour a temporary rebound near the support at 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.6525.

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Buying interest remains strong.

• USD/JPY has weakened near the resistance at 107.59 (see also the 50% retracement). However, yesterday's large lower shadow indicates strong short-term buying interest. An hourly support can be found at 106.14 (17/10/2014 low). Another resistance lies at 108.74.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. Despite the recent decline near the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high), a gradual move higher is eventually favoured. Another resistance can be found at 114.66 (27/12/2007 high). A key support lies at 105.44 (02/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Improving.

• USD/CHF continues to improve since 15 October. The short-term declining trendline has been broken and the resistance at 0.9491 has been breached. Another resistance stands at 0.9562. An hourly support lies at 0.9441 (intraday low), while a more significant support is at 0.9368.

• From a longer term perspective, the technical structure favours a full retracement of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. As a result, the recent weakness is seen as a countertrend move. A key support can be found at 0.9301 (16/09/2014 low). A resistance now lies at 0.9691 (06/10/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

The support at 1.1217 is challenged.

• USD/CAD is challenging the support at 1.1217 (see also the rising channel). A decisive break of this level would weaken the technical structure. An hourly resistance can be found at 1.1296, while a key resistance stands at 1.1385. Another support lies at 1.1161.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. The recent move above the resistance at 1.1279 (20/03/2014 high) confirms this bullish outlook. Strong supports can be found at 1.1072 (02/10/2014 low) and 1.0811 (29/08/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Moving sideways.

• AUD/USD is moving within the horizontal range defined by the key support at 0.8643/0.8660 (24/01/2014 low) and the key resistance at 0.8897. An hourly resistance lies at 0.8837 (intraday high), whereas an hourly support can be found at 0.8734.

• In the long-term, the underlying trend is negative. Despite the recent successful test of the strong support at 0.8660 (24/01/2014 low), the long-term technical structure favours further decline. A key resistance stands at 0.9112 (16/09/2014 high). Another strong support lies at 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Consolidating below the resistance at 173.32.

• GBP/JPY has thus far failed to break the resistance at 173.32 (see also the 38.2% retracement), suggesting a weakening shortterm bullish momentum. Hourly supports can be found at 171.25 (intraday low) and 170.21. Another resistance lies at 175.01.

• In the long-term, the trend is positive as long as the strong support area between 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) and 167.78 (18/03/2014 low) holds. However, the sharp reversal near the psychological threshold at 180.00 and the fading 200-day moving average indicate a weakening trend.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Weakening near the resistance at 137.07.

• EUR/JPY has weakened near the hourly resistance at 137.07 (10/10/2014 high). The hourly support at 135.76 (17/10/2014 low) is challenged, while a key support stands at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low). A key resistance stands at 137.95.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the key support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. However, the break of the support at 135.73 and the declining slope of the 200-day moving average signal a weakening long-term trend. A resistance can be found at 141.23 (19/09/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Bearish breakout of the support area between 0.7906 and 0.7900.

• EUR/GBP has failed to break the strong resistance area between 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) and 0.8066 (10/09/2014 high). The support area between 0.7906 (14/10/2014 low) and 0.7900 has been broken, confirming increasing selling pressures. Another support can be found at 0.7850 (10/10/2014 low). An hourly resistance lies at 0.7942.

• In the longer term, the underlying downtrend favours a test of the major support area between 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low) and 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low) at minimum. A decisive break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Remains weak.

• EUR/CHF is trying to bounce near the low of its rising channel. However, the rise has thus far been unimpressive. Hourly resistances stand at 1.2080 (15/10/2014 high) and 1.2093. Horizontal supports can be found at 1.2053 (30/09/2014 low) and 1.2045.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is unlikely to be broken. As a result, further sideways moves are expected in the medium-term.

Await fresh signal.

GOLD (in USD)

Approaching the resistance at 1258.

• Gold continues to bounce and is now approaching the resistance at 1258 (09/09/2014 high). The short-term momentum is positive as long as the hourly support at 1232 holds. An initial support can be found at 1241 (intraday low). A key resistance lies at 1277.

• In the long-term, despite the successful test of the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low), the underlying downtrend and the recent 4-year lows in silver favour an eventual break lower. The resistance at 1277 (04/09/2014 high) is likely to cap any rebound in prices. Other supports can be found at 1157 (28/07/2010 low) and 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Recent succession of higher lows intact thus far.

• Silver continues to move sideways between the support at 17.06 and the resistance at 17.74 (26/09/2014 high), despite the recent highs made by gold. An initial support lies at 17.34 (intraday low). A key resistance stands at 18.00 (23/09/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend and favours further decline towards the strong support at 14.64 (05/02/2010 low). A resistance lies at 18.88 (09/09/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.