USD/JPY - Losing short-term momentum

EUR/USD

Remains weak.

• EUR/USD remains thus far unable to hold above its previous lows, indicating persistent selling pressures. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.2930 (18/09/2014 high) and 1.2988. A key support stands at 1.2755.

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The break of the key support at 1.3105 (06/09/2013 low) opens the way for a decline towards the strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low). A key resistance lies at 1.3221 (28/08/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Sharp reversal near the resistance at 1.6497.

• GBP/USD has made a sharp bearish reversal near the resistance at 1.6497 (see also the 38.2% retracement). A phase of consolidation is likely. Hourly supports can be found at 1.6241 (intraday low) and 1.6162 (16/09/2014 low). A key resistance now lies at 1.6525 (19/09/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the collapse in prices after having reached 4-year highs has created a strong resistance at 1.7192, which is unlikely to be broken in the coming months. Monitor the recent rebound as it could signal the start of a medium-term consolidation phase. A support lies at 1.6052, while a strong support stands at 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low).
  

• Friday's weakness has forced us to close the remaining of our long position.

Our long strategy has been stopped.

USD/JPY 

Losing short-term momentum.

• USD/JPY is losing momentum. A break of the initial support at 108.60 would favour a shortterm corrective phase. Hourly supports are given by the steep rising trendline (around 108.19) and 107.39. An hourly resistance stands at 109.46 (19/09/2014 high).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. The recent new highs confirm a strong underlying bullish trend. Despite a likely pause near the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high), an eventual break to the upside is favoured. Another resistance can be found at 114.66 (27/12/2007 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Near the strong resistance at 0.9456.

• USD/CHF continues to exhibit a succession of higher lows. However, prices are close to the strong resistance at 0.9456 (06/09/2013 high). An hourly resistance now lies at 0.9433. Hourly supports are given by the steep rising trendline (around 0.9328) and 0.9287.

• From a longer term perspective, the technical structure calls for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. A strong resistance stands at 0.9456 (06/09/2013 high). Another key resistance lies at 0.9751 (09/07/2013 high). Supports can be found at 0.9176 (03/09/2014 low) and 0.9104 (22/08/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Bouncing sharply.

• USD/CAD made a sharp bullish intraday reversal near the support at 1.0934 (10/09/2014 low) on Friday, suggesting pickup in buying interest. The hourly resistance at 1.1024 (18/09/2014 high) has been broken. Another resistance lies at 1.1099. Hourly supports can be found at 1.0974 (intraday low) and 1.0927 (22/09/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

The support at 0.8891 has been breached.

• AUD/USD has breached the support at 0.8891. The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 0.9002 (19/09/2014 high). Another resistance stands at 0.9112 (16/09/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the underlying trend is negative. The lack of base formation on January 2014 and the current sharp decline favour a test of the strong support at 0.8660 (24/01/2014 low). Another strong support lies at 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Exhaustion in buying interest.

• GBP/JPY made a sharp bearish intraday reversal on Friday, indicating exhaustion in buying interest. A short-term corrective phase is favoured. A support lies at 174.67 (12/09/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further long-term strength. However, the failure to hold above the resistance at 179.17 (see also psychological threshold at 180.00) favours a phase of consolidation. Other resistances can be found at 183.98 (50% retracement of the 2007-2009 decline) and 197.45. Strong supports lie at 172.99 (16/09/2014 low) and 169.51 (11/04/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Exhaustion in buying interest.

• EUR/JPY made a sharp bearish intraday reversal on Friday, indicating exhaustion in buying interest. A short-term bearish flag is likely underway, favouring a test of the support at 138.47 (15/09/2014 low). An hourly support can be found at 139.15 (18/09/2014 low). Hourly resistances stand at 140.20 (22/09/2014 high) and 141.23.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. The break of the strong resistance at 140.09 (09/06/2014 high) has improved the medium-term technical structure. A resistance can be found at 142.47 (29/04/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Pickup in buying interest.

• EUR/GBP made a sharp bullish intraday reversal on Friday (hammer) indicating exhaustion in short-term selling pressures. Hourly resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 0.7915 (18/09/2014 high) and 0.7952 (intraday high). An hourly support now stands at 0.7810 (19/09/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the underlying downtrend favours a test of the major support area between 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low) and 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low) at minimum. A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Moving sideways.

• EUR/CHF is moving sideways between the support at 1.2045 and the resistance at 1.2121 (15/08/2014 high). An hourly support now lies at 1.2064 (22/09/2014 low), while an hourly resistance can be found at 1.2091 (intraday high).

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future. As a result, further sideways moves are expected in the mediumterm.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)

GOLD (in USD)

Remains weak.

• Gold has broken the support at 1240, confirming an underlying bearish momentum. The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1243 (16/09/2014 high). An hourly resistance can be found at 1229 (19/09/2014 high), whereas an hourly support lies at 1208 (22/09/2014 low).

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured. The recent break to the downside out of the symmetrical triangle confirms this scenario.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Making 4 year lows.

• Silver made a large daily lower shadow yesterday. Resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 18.29 (18/09/2014 low) and 18.63 (18/09/2014 high). An hourly support lies at 17.34 (22/09/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. A strong support can be found at 14.64 (05/02/2010 low). A resistance lies at 19.91 (28/08/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.