USDCHF: The support at 0.9035 has held thus far

EUR/USD

Monitor the resistance at 1.3444.

• EUR/USD is bouncing within its underlying downtrend. Monitor the hourly resistance at 1.3444 (28/07/2014 high). A key resistance area stands between 1.3485 (24/07/2014 high) and 1.3503 (see also the 38.2% retracement and the declining trendline). A support can be found at 1.3367.

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The downside risk is given by 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700). A strong support stands at 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.3549 (21/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Trying to bounce.

• GBP/USD showed signs of buying interest yesterday after its relentless decline since mid- July. However, the hourly resistance at 1.6893 (01/08/2014 high) needs at least to be broken to suggest some exhaustion in short-term selling pressures. Another resistance can be found at 1.6928 (intraday high). An hourly support lies at 1.6814.

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A key support stands at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low).

Buy stop 2 units at 1.6938, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7167, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.6847.

USD/JPY

Digesting its recent rise.

• USD/JPY is consolidating after the successful test of the key resistance at 103.02. Monitor the support at 102.36 (18/06/2014 high, see also the 38.2% retracement). Another support can be found at 102.04 (30/07/2014 low).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. Another resistance can be found at 104.13 (04/04/2014 high), while a major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

The support at 0.9035 has held thus far.

• USD/CHF has weakened. However, the shortterm bullish momentum remains positive as long as the support at 0.9035 (28/07/2014 low) holds. Another support can be found at 0.9008. An hourly resistance now stands at 0.9107.

• From a longer term perspective, the recent technical improvements call for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. Furthermore, the break of the resistance at 0.9037 calls for a second leg higher (echoing the one started on 8 May) with an upside potential at 0.9191. As a result, a test of the strong resistance at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high) is expected.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Fading near the key resistance at 1.0961?

• USD/CAD has exhibited significant upper shadows in the last three days, suggesting increasing selling pressures near the key resistance at 1.0961 (see also the 50% retracement). However, a break of the hourly support at 1.0877 (31/07/2014 low) is needed to confirm these warning signals. Another support stands at 1.0797 (29/07/2014 low), whereas another resistance lies at 1.1053.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Bouncing.

• AUD/USD has broken the key support at 0.9319, validating a bearish reversal pattern with a downside risk at 0.9206. The recent strength is seen as a short-term pullback as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 0.9355 (intraday high, see also the 38.2% retracement). Hourly supports lie at 0.9317 (intraday low) and 0.9276.

• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. The break of the support at 0.9319 calls for a test of the low of the range.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

The support at 172.38 has held thus far.

• GBP/JPY is bouncing near the key support at 172.38. Hourly resistances can be found at 173.38 (intraday high) and 174.22 (30/07/2014 high). Another support lies at 170.97 (11/06/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 167.78 (18/03/2014 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Approaching the top of its declining channel.

• EUR/JPY has rebounded near the key support at 136.23 and is now close to the resistance implied by its declining channel (around 138.20). A break of the hourly support at 137.34 (22/07/2014 high) would suggest the end of the rebound. Another resistance stands at 138.45.

• The bearish breakout of the 200 day moving average confirms a deterioration of the mediumterm technical structure. A key support stands at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), while a strong resistance lies at 104.09 (09/06/2014 high).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

The resistance at 0.7981 has held thus far.

• EUR/GBP moved significantly higher yesterday, but has thus far failed to decisively break the key resistance at 0.7981. Hourly supports can be found at 0.7940 (24/07/2014 high, see also the short-term rising channel) and 0.7904 (28/07/2014 low). Another key resistance stands at 0.8034.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Rising back towards the resistance at 1.2178.

• EUR/CHF is bouncing. Monitor the resistance at 1.2178. An hourly support stands at 1.2155 (01/08/2014 low, see also the rising trendline). Another resistance can be found at 1.2200.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Monitor the declining channel.

• Gold continues to move within its short-term declining channel. Hourly resistances can be found at 1304 (declining channel) and 1311 (23/07/2014 high). Supports are given by the 61.8% retracement (1281) and 1258.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Making new lows.

• Silver has broken the support at 20.31, confirming the current underlying downtrend. A support stands at 20.00. Hourly resistances can be found at 20.56 (01/08/2014 high, see also the declining channel) and 20.82.
• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.