USDCHF: Challenging the key resistance at 0.9037

EUR/USD

Moving lower.

• EUR/USD has broken the key support area defined by 1.3503 (see also the long-term rising trendline from the July 2012 low) and 1.3477, confirming an underlying downtrend. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.3496 (intraday high) and 1.3513 (21/07/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. Downside risks are given by 1.3379 (implied by the double-top formation) and 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700). A strong support stands at 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low). A resistance lies at 1.3549 (21/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

The support at 1.7039 has been breached.

• GBP/USD is in a corrective phase. The hourly support at 1.7039 has been breached. Other supports can be found at 1.7007 (see also the 38.2% retracement) and 1.6953. A break of the hourly resistance at 1.7118 (18/07/2014 high) is needed to improve the short-term technical structure. Another resistance stands at 1.7192.

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A support lies at 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low).

Buy stop 2 units at 1.7202, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7328, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.7158.

USD/JPY

Moving sideways.

• USD/JPY is moving sideways within the horizontal range defined by the support at 101.07 and the resistance at 101.86. The declining channel continues to favour a bearish bias. However, monitor the hourly resistance at 101.60 (22/07/2014 high) as prices have recently exhibited a series of higher lows.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Challenging the key resistance at 0.9037.

• USD/CHF has broken the resistance at 0.9013 (16/06/2014 high) and is now challenging the key resistance at 0.9037 (see also the declining channel). Initial supports can be found at 0.9016 (23/07/2014 low) and 0.9001 (intraday low). Another support lies at 0.8969 (17/07/2014 low).

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 (04/04/2014 high) suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. Furthermore, a break of the resistance at 0.9037 would favour a second leg higher (echoing the one started on 8 May) with an upside potential at 0.9191. A strong resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Remains thus far capped by its declining trendline.

• USD/CAD continues to weaken near the resistance implied by its declining trendline. A break of the hourly support at 1.0710 (14/07/2014 low) would confirm exhaustion in the buying interest. Another hourly support lies at 1.0694 (08/07/2014 high). A key resistance lies at 1.0814 (previous support, see also the 200 day moving average).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0637) and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

False breakout at 0.9457?

• AUD/USD has broken the resistance at 0.9457, but has thus far failed to hold above it. A break of the initial support at 0.9426 (intraday low) would suggest a false bullish breakout. Another support stands at 0.9380 (intraday low, see also the rising trendline). A key resistance stands at 0.9505.

• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. A break of the support at 0.9319 is needed to suggest significant exhaustion in the buying interest.

Sell stop 2 units at 0.9309, Obj: Close 1 unit at 0.9212, remaining at 0.9007, Stop: 0.9348.

GBP/JPY

Remains weak.

• GBP/JPY remains weak as can be seen by yesterday's new (marginal) lows. A break of the hourly resistance at 173.59 (see also the declining trendline) is needed to improve the short-term technical structure. Another resistance stands at 174.57. A support stands at 172.38.

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 167.78 (18/03/2014 low) holds.

Buy stop 2 units at 174.67, Obj: Close 1 unit at 179.80, remaining at 183.85, Stop: 174.14

EUR/JPY

Monitor the test of the key support at 136.23.

• EUR/JPY is close to the key support at 136.23. A break of this level would open the way for a further decline towards the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low). An initial resistance can be found at 136.80 (intraday high). An hourly resistance stands at 137.34 (22/07/2014 high).

• The bearish breakout of the 200 day moving average confirms a deterioration of the mediumterm technical structure. A key support stands at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), while a strong resistance lies at 104.09 (09/06/2014 high).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Trying to bounce.

• EUR/GBP is trying to bounce after having posted new lows. Hourly resistances are given by 0.7934 and the top of the declining channel (around 0.7951). An hourly support now lies at 0.7874.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

The resistance at 1.2158 has held thus far.

• EUR/CHF is moving within its horizontal range defined by the support at 1.2134 and the resistance at 1.2166. A break of the hourly resistance at 1.2158 (see also the declining trendline) would signal increasing buying interest. However, the aforementioned horizontal range needs to be broken to negate the downside risk at 1.2104 implied by the previous symmetrical triangle.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)

GOLD (in USD)

Monitor the support at 1292.

• Gold has weakened after failing to break the hourly resistance at 1325 (61.8% retracement of the recent decline). Monitor the support at 1292 (see also the 50% retracement of the rise started in June), as a break would confirm a new leg lower towards 1272. Another support can be found at 1285.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Monitor the support at 20.74.

• Silver has thus far failed to decisively break the resistance at 21.23 (intraday high, see also the 61.8% retracement). The recent succession of lower highs suggests a decreasing buying interest. Monitor the hourly support at 20.74. A key support stands at 20.58.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.