USDCHF: Pausing after its recent sharp rise

EUR/USD

Intraday bullish reversal near the key support at 1.3503.

• EUR/USD made an intraday bullish reversal near the key support at 1.3503 (see also the long-term rising trendline from the July 2012 low) on Friday, favouring a short-term bounce. The initial resistance at 1.3540 (17/07/2014 high) has been breached. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.3562 (15/07/2014 low) and 1.3581.

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. A long-term downside risk at 1.3379 (implied by the double-top formation) is favoured as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.3700. Key supports can be found at 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low) and 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Weakening.

• GBP/USD is weakening, as can be seen by the breach of the support at 1.7060. Further consolidation is likely before a resumption of the underlying uptrend. Another support stands at 1.7007 (see also the 38.2% retracement). Hourly resistances can be found at 1.7118 (18/07/2014 high) and 1.7192.

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A support lies at 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low).

Buy stop 2 units at 1.7202, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7328, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.7158.

USD/JPY

Monitor the support at 101.07.

• USD/JPY has thus far successfully tested the hourly support at 101.07. An hourly resistance lies at 101.58 (intraday high), while a resistance area can be found between 101.79 (16/07/2014 high) and 101.86.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Pausing after its recent sharp rise.

• USD/CHF has broken a key resistance area between 0.8959 and 0.8975. Another key resistance area stands between 0.9013 (16/06/2014 high) and 0.9037. Monitor the current consolidation near the hourly support at 0.8969. Another support lies at 0.8938 (09/07/2014 high).

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. A strong resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Consolidating below the key resistance at 1.0814.

• USD/CAD is moving sideways below the key resistance at 1.0814 (previous support, see also the declining trendline and the 200 day moving average). A break of the hourly support at 1.0710 (14/07/2014 low) would suggest exhaustion in the buying interest. Another hourly support lies at 1.0694 (08/07/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0664) and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Challenging the resistance at 0.9409.

• AUD/USD is challenging the resistance at 0.9409 (see also the declining channel). A break of this level would alleviate the concerns stemming from the potential bearish head and shoulders formation. An initial support lies at 0.9365 (intraday low). A key support stands at 0.9319. Another resistance can be found at 0.9457.

• In the longer term, the false breakout at 0.9461 confirms a limited upside potential, favouring a bearish bias. However, a break of the key support at 0.9206 (03/04/2014 low) is needed to open the way for a new significant phase of decline.

Sell stop 2 units at 0.9309, Obj: Close 1 unit at 0.9212, remaining at 0.9007, Stop: 0.9348.

GBP/JPY

Corrective phase underway.

• GBP/JPY remains weak, as can be seen by Friday's new lows. Supports stand at 172.38 and 170.97. An hourly resistance can be found at 173.73 (intraday high). Another resistance lies at 174.57.

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) holds.

Buy stop 2 units at 175.47, Obj: Close 1 unit at 179.80, remaining at 183.85, Stop: 174.47.

EUR/JPY

Trying to bounce.

• EUR/JPY is trying to bounce. However, a test of the key support at 136.23 is favoured as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 137.58 (intraday high). Another resistance lies at 138.09 (16/07/2014 high).

• The bearish breakout of the 200 day moving average confirms a deterioration of the mediumterm technical structure. A key support stands at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), while a strong resistance lies at 104.09 (09/06/2014 high).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Bouncing.

• EUR/GBP has broken the hourly resistance at 0.7918 (16/07/2014 high). A short-term bounce is likely underway. Another hourly resistance stands at 0.7937 (intraday high). Hourly supports lie at 0.7904 (18/07/2014 low) and 0.7889.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Trying to form a short-term base.

• EUR/CHF has successfully tested the low of its horizontal range defined by the support at 1.2134 and the resistance at 1.2166. The shortterm buying interest is improving as can be seen by the test of the hourly resistance area defined by the declining trendlines (around 1.2158). However, the horizontal range needs to be broken to negate the downside risk at 1.2104 implied by the previous symmetrical triangle.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Bouncing.

• Gold remains thus far stuck between the support at 1292 (see also the 50% retracement of the rise started in June) and the hourly resistance at 1325 (61.8% retracement of the recent decline). A key resistance stands at 1345.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Bouncing.

• Silver has successfully tested the support at 20.58. However, prices have thus far failed to decisively break the resistance at 21.23 (intraday high, see also the 61.8% retracement). Another resistance stands at 21.58, whereas another support lies at 20.00.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.