USD/CHF: Fading near its declining channel

EUR/USD

Trying to bounce.

• EUR/USD made a bullish intraday reversal yesterday, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. Hourly resistances stand at 1.3621 (intraday high) and 1.3664 (03/07/2014 high). However, an eventual decline towards the support at 1.3503 remains favoured. An hourly support can be found at 1.3565 (20/06/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. A long-term downside risk at 1.3379 (implied by the double-top formation) is favoured as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.3775. Key supports can be found at 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low) and 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Consolidating.

• GBP/USD has broken the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high). A short-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the hourly support at 1.7096 (01/07/2014 low, see also the short-term rising trendline) holds. Another support lies at 1.7007 (27/06/2014 low). An hourly resistance now lies at 1.7177.

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A support lies at 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Fading near the resistance at 102.36.

• USD/JPY has weakened near the resistance at 102.36 (18/06/2014 high), breaking the hourly support at 101.97 (04/07/2014 low). Monitor the hourly support at 101.65 (intraday high, see also the 61.8% retracement). Another support can be found at 101.24. An initial resistance now lies at 101.97 (04/07/2014 low).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. A break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Fading near its declining channel.

• USD/CHF has thus far failed to break the resistance implied by its declining channel (around 0.8959). Another resistance lies at 0.8975. Hourly supports can be found at 0.8926 (intraday low) and 0.8886 (intraday low).

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. A key resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Short-term exhaustion in the selling pressure?

• USD/CAD bounced close to the key support implied by its long-term rising trendline (around 1.0643) yesterday. A break of the hourly resistance at 1.0697 (27/06/2014 high) would confirm a short-term rebound. Another resistance can be found at 1.0752 (25/06/2014 high), whereas another strong support stands at 1.0559.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0643) and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Bouncing.

• AUD/USD is bouncing after its sharp decline. However, as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 0.9388/0.9396 (38.2% retracement), the short-term technical structure favours further weakness. Key supports stand at 0.9319 and 0.9206. Another hourly resistance can be found at 0.9444 (03/07/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the false breakout at 0.9461 confirms a limited upside potential, favouring a bearish bias. However, a break of the key support at 0.9206 (03/04/2014 low) is needed to open the way for a new significant phase of decline.

Sell stop 2 units at 0.9309, Obj: Close 1 unit at 0.9212, remaining at 0.9007, Stop: 0.9348.

GBP/JPY

Weakening.

• GBP/JPY has made new highs above the key resistance at 174.85, confirming the underlying uptrend. However, the recent break of the hourly support at 174.51(03/07/2014 low) suggests a short-term correction. Another support can be found at 173.92. An hourly resistance stands at 175.37 (03/07/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) holds.

Long 1 unit at 174.20, Obj: Close remaining at 179.80, Stop: 173.82 (Entered: 2014-07-01).

EUR/JPY

Remains weak.

• EUR/JPY has broken the hourly support at 138.55 (02/07/2014 low), confirming a lack of buying interest. Other supports are given by the rising channel (around 138.13) and 137.71. Prices need to break the resistance implied by the 200 day moving average (around 139.28) to indicate exhaustion in selling pressures.

• Despite the strong support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), the long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong resistance stands at 145.69 (27/12/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Trying to bounce.

• EUR/GBP has broken the key support at 0.7961 (08/11/2012 low)/0.7959 (16/06/2014 low), opening the way for further weakness. An hourly resistance for a short-term bounce can be found at 0.7973 (03/07/2014 high). However, a break of the hourly resistance at 0.8034 is needed to invalidate the bearish technical structure. An hourly support now lies at 0.7915 (07/07/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8153 (29/05/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the long-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

The resistance at 1.2166 has held thus far.

• EUR/CHF has thus failed to break the hourly resistance at 1.2166. Furthermore, a break of the resistance at 1.2178 (20/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest something more than a temporary bounce. A support stands at 1.2134.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Still consolidating.

• Gold continues to consolidate near the key resistance at 1331 (see also the 61.8% retracement). Monitor the support at 1305, as a break lower would open the way for a deeper correction. Another resistance lies at 1343, whereas another support can be found at 1285.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Bouncing near the low of its short-term rising channel.

• Silver has bounced near the supports implied by the short-term rising channel and the rising trendline. A failure to make a new higher high would confirm a weakening buying interest. An hourly resistance lies at 21.29 (02/07/2014 high). Supports now stand at 20.83 (07/07/2014 low) and 20.58. Another resistance can be found at 21.79.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.